PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2026

AFC Ajax 5–1 Willem II Tilburg · Eredivisie

5–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

AFC Ajax won 5–1.

Shots
3310
Shots on target
134
Expected goals
3.771.58
Possession
70%30%

Full time

What the match recorded

AFC Ajax beat Willem II Tilburg 5–1. Recorded in this match (AFC Ajax – Willem II Tilburg): shots 33–10, shots on target 13–4, expected goals 3.77–1.58, possession 70%–30%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AFC Ajax show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

23.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAFC Ajax · Willem II Tilburg11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAFC AjaxWillem II TilburgBaseline
Shots23.3 shots/match11.3 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against10.5 shots/match20.3 shots/match16.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for AFC Ajax, Willem II Tilburg.

3 days ▲Rest daysAFC Ajax · Willem II Tilburg4 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAFC AjaxWillem II TilburgBaseline
Rest days3 days4 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AFC Ajax have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.7% ●PossessionAFC Ajax · Willem II Tilburg37.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 24.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricAFC AjaxWillem II TilburgBaseline
Possession61.7%37.3%48.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots33 shots10 shotsAFC Ajax 33 shots, Willem II Tilburg 10 shots
  • Shots on target13 shots4 shotsAFC Ajax 13 shots, Willem II Tilburg 4 shots
  • Expected goals3.77 xG1.58 xGAFC Ajax 3.77 xG, Willem II Tilburg 1.58 xG
  • Possession70%30%AFC Ajax 70%, Willem II Tilburg 30%
  • Corners14 corners2 cornersAFC Ajax 14 corners, Willem II Tilburg 2 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls3 foulsAFC Ajax 6 fouls, Willem II Tilburg 3 fouls
  • Passes752 passes327 passesAFC Ajax 752 passes, Willem II Tilburg 327 passes
  • Pass accuracy91.8%81.4%AFC Ajax 91.8%, Willem II Tilburg 81.4%
  • Shots inside box26 shots7 shotsAFC Ajax 26 shots, Willem II Tilburg 7 shots
  • Blocked shots10 blocks2 blocksAFC Ajax 10 blocks, Willem II Tilburg 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves8 savesAFC Ajax 3 saves, Willem II Tilburg 8 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides4 offsidesAFC Ajax 3 offsides, Willem II Tilburg 4 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 41′Davy KlaassenGoal · AFC Ajax
  2. 45′Julian BrandtGoal · AFC Ajax
  3. Half-time
  4. 69′Viktor TsygankovGoal · AFC Ajax
  5. 74′Oscar GloukhGoal · AFC Ajax
  6. 76′Alessandro CiranniGoal · Willem II Tilburg
  7. 87′Kasper DolbergGoal · AFC Ajax
  8. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Willem II Tilburg · 2 player changesAlessandro Ciranni · Mats Lemmens
  • 57′AFC Ajax · 2 player changesSofyan Amrabat · Viktor Tsygankov
  • 61′Willem II Tilburg · 1 player changeAmine Et-Taibi
  • 67′AFC Ajax · 2 player changesAbdellah Ouazane · Caio Henrique
  • 70′Willem II Tilburg · 1 player changeChido Obi-Martin
  • 77′AFC Ajax · 1 player changeDies Janse
  • 84′Willem II Tilburg · 1 player changeEser Gürbüz

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

AFC Ajax
  1. Maarten PaesG
  2. Lucas RosaD
  3. Owen WijndalD
  4. Thilo KehrerD
  5. Youri BaasD
  6. Julian BrandtM
  7. Davy KlaassenM
  8. Jorthy MokioM
  9. Kasper DolbergF
  10. Oscar GloukhF
  11. Steven BerghuisF
Willem II Tilburg
  1. Maxime DelangheG
  2. Finn StamD
  3. Hidde ter AvestD
  4. Maxim DekkerD
  5. Nathan Tjoe-A-OnD
  6. Calvin TwigtM
  7. Uriel van AalstM
  8. Tonny VilhenaM
  9. Jaden SloryF
  10. Devin HaenF
  11. Per van LoonF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3AFC Ajax
0Draws
0Willem II Tilburg
Willem II Tilburg — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie1–2
AFC Ajax — Willem II Tilburg · Eredivisie1–0
AFC Ajax — Willem II Tilburg · Eredivisie5–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AFC Ajax favored in 13 of 13 directional metrics · Willem II Tilburg in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AFC Ajax6 matchesWillem II Tilburg6 matches
3.17 goals/match ▲Goals scored6/61 goal/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/63.17 goals/match
2.67 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/61.33 xG/match
23.3 shots/match ▲Shots6/611.3 shots/match
8.17 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/62.67 shots/match
61.7% ●Possession6/637.3%
7.83 corners/match ●Corners6/63.83 corners/match
9.17 fouls/matchFouls6/69 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 15 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAFC AjaxWillem II Tilburg
CompetitionEredivisie
Head-to-headAFC Ajax — Willem II Tilburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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