PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2026

Fortuna Sittard 1–5 AFC Ajax · Eredivisie

1–5Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

AFC Ajax won 1–5.

Shots
827
Shots on target
411
Expected goals
0.714.13
Possession
34%66%

Full time

What the match recorded

AFC Ajax beat Fortuna Sittard 5–1. Recorded in this match (Fortuna Sittard – AFC Ajax): shots 8–27, shots on target 4–11, expected goals 0.71–4.13, possession 34%–66%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AFC Ajax show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

AFC Ajax's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9 shots/match ▲ShotsFortuna Sittard · AFC Ajax21.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFortuna SittardAFC AjaxBaseline
Shots9 shots/match21.4 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against21 shots/match10.6 shots/match15.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AFC Ajax have recorded the higher season possession share.

32.7%PossessionFortuna Sittard · AFC Ajax● 60%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 27.3 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFortuna SittardAFC AjaxBaseline
Possession32.7%60%50.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots27 shotsFortuna Sittard 8 shots, AFC Ajax 27 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots11 shotsFortuna Sittard 4 shots, AFC Ajax 11 shots
  • Expected goals0.71 xG4.13 xGFortuna Sittard 0.71 xG, AFC Ajax 4.13 xG
  • Possession34%66%Fortuna Sittard 34%, AFC Ajax 66%
  • Corners3 corners11 cornersFortuna Sittard 3 corners, AFC Ajax 11 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls12 foulsFortuna Sittard 5 fouls, AFC Ajax 12 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card5 cardsFortuna Sittard 1 card, AFC Ajax 5 cards
  • Passes320 passes622 passesFortuna Sittard 320 passes, AFC Ajax 622 passes
  • Pass accuracy80.9%90.7%Fortuna Sittard 80.9%, AFC Ajax 90.7%
  • Shots inside box4 shots24 shotsFortuna Sittard 4 shots, AFC Ajax 24 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks4 blocksFortuna Sittard 2 blocks, AFC Ajax 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves6 saves3 savesFortuna Sittard 6 saves, AFC Ajax 3 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides1 offsideFortuna Sittard 2 offsides, AFC Ajax 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 6′Jorthy MokioYellow card · AFC Ajax
  2. 23′Youri BaasYellow card · AFC Ajax
  3. 35′Julian BrandtGoal · AFC Ajax
  4. 44′Lequincio ZeefuikYellow card · Fortuna Sittard
  5. Half-time
  6. 52′Anthony DescotteGoal · Fortuna Sittard
  7. 62′Thilo KehrerGoal · AFC Ajax
  8. 64′Steven BerghuisYellow card · AFC Ajax
  9. 71′Caio HenriqueYellow card · AFC Ajax
  10. 73′Davy KlaassenGoal · AFC Ajax
  11. 79′Kasper DolbergGoal · AFC Ajax
  12. 81′Abdellah OuazaneYellow card · AFC Ajax
  13. 90′Youri BaasGoal · AFC Ajax
  14. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Fortuna Sittard · 1 player changeAnthony Descotte
  • 57′AFC Ajax · 1 player changeAbdellah Ouazane
  • 58′AFC Ajax · 1 player changeDavy Klaassen
  • 68′AFC Ajax · 1 player changeViktor Tsygankov
  • 74′AFC Ajax · 2 player changesOscar Gloukh · Kasper Dolberg
  • 76′Fortuna Sittard · 2 player changesNick de Groot · Syb Van Ottele
  • 86′Fortuna Sittard · 1 player changeMoussa Gbemou
  • 89′Fortuna Sittard · 1 player changeKevin van Burgsteden

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Fortuna Sittard
  1. Mattijs BranderhorstG
  2. Rodrigo GuthD
  3. Jasper DahlhausD
  4. Ivo PintoD
  5. Philip BrittijnD
  6. Justin HubnerD
  7. Édouard MichutM
  8. Shiloh 't ZandM
  9. Mohamed IhattarenM
  10. Ole RomenyF
  11. Lequincio ZeefuikF
AFC Ajax
  1. Marc-André Ter StegenG
  2. Anton GaaeiD
  3. Thilo KehrerD
  4. Caio HenriqueD
  5. Youri BaasD
  6. Sofyan AmrabatM
  7. Julian BrandtM
  8. Jorthy MokioM
  9. Oliver Valaker EdvardsenF
  10. Steven BerghuisF
  11. Tolu ArokodareF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Fortuna Sittard
1Draws
4AFC Ajax
AFC Ajax — Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie4–1
Fortuna Sittard — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie1–3
Fortuna Sittard — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie0–2
AFC Ajax — Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie5–0
AFC Ajax — Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortuna Sittard favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · AFC Ajax in 13

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortuna Sittard6 matchesAFC Ajax5 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored6/5▲ 2.8 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/5▲ 1.2 goals/match
0.86 xG/matchExpected goals6/5▲ 2.45 xG/match
9 shots/matchShots6/5▲ 21.4 shots/match
4.83 shots/matchShots on target6/5▲ 7.2 shots/match
32.7%Possession6/5● 60%
2 corners/matchCorners6/5● 6.6 corners/match
9 fouls/matchFouls6/59.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortuna SittardAFC Ajax
CompetitionEredivisie
Head-to-headFortuna Sittard — AFC Ajax
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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