PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

VfB Stuttgart 3–1 VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfB Stuttgart won 3–1.

Shots
1412
Shots on target
85
Expected goals
2.691.23
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfB Stuttgart beat VfL Wolfsburg 3–1. Recorded in this match (VfB Stuttgart – VfL Wolfsburg): shots 14–12, shots on target 8–5, expected goals 2.69–1.23, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfL Wolfsburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.43 goals/match1.69 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfL Wolfsburg have a visible away split

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match12.1 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

VfL Wolfsburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.4 shots/match ▲ShotsVfB Stuttgart · VfL Wolfsburg12.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfB StuttgartVfL WolfsburgBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match12.1 shots/match13.6 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match13.7 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots12 shotsVfB Stuttgart 14 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 12 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots5 shotsVfB Stuttgart 8 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.69 xG1.23 xGVfB Stuttgart 2.69 xG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.23 xG
  • Possession59%41%VfB Stuttgart 59%, VfL Wolfsburg 41%
  • Corners5 corners6 cornersVfB Stuttgart 5 corners, VfL Wolfsburg 6 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls14 foulsVfB Stuttgart 13 fouls, VfL Wolfsburg 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 75′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedYannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Rouault · VfB Stuttgart · 72′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAtakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLovro Majer · VfL Wolfsburg · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 31′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 76′ · 0.05 xG · on targetSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 50′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 54′ · 0.06 xG · on targetHiroki Itō · VfB Stuttgart · 58′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 59′ · 0.06 xG · on targetWaldemar Anton · VfB Stuttgart · 17′ · 0.07 xG · on targetTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 1′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCedric Zesiger · VfL Wolfsburg · 56′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJoakim Mæhle · VfL Wolfsburg · 34′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 33′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 78′ · 0.18 xG · on targetTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 55′ · 0.21 xG · on targetYannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 34′ · 0.26 xG · goalJoakim Mæhle · VfL Wolfsburg · 19′ · 0.31 xG · on targetSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 82′ · 0.31 xG · goalSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 78′ · 0.81 xG · goalSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 67′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfB Stuttgart: 14 shots, 8 on target, 2.66 xG. VfL Wolfsburg: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.26 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 67′Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 78′Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 82′Yannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 34′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfB Stuttgart 2.66 xG · VfL Wolfsburg 1.26 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1VfB Stuttgart
1Draws
2VfL Wolfsburg
VfB Stuttgart — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–1
VfL Wolfsburg — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga3–2
VfB Stuttgart — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–1
VfL Wolfsburg — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfB Stuttgart favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 1

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfB Stuttgart7 matchesVfL Wolfsburg7 matches
3.14 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/71.43 goals/match
1.14 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/71.29 goals/match
2.15 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.49 xG/match
15.4 shots/match ▲Shots7/712.1 shots/match
6.86 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/75.43 shots/match
56% ●Possession7/747.7%
4.43 corners/match ●Corners7/73.43 corners/match
8.71 fouls/matchFouls7/711.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfB StuttgartVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headVfB Stuttgart — VfL Wolfsburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required