Bundesliga · 2023Fri, 20 Oct 2023, 18:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Borussia Dortmund

DWWWW

1–0Full-time recap

SV Werder Bremen

WLWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Borussia Dortmund	SV Werder Bremen
Shots	23 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	2.69 xG/match▲	0.37 xG/match
Possession	57%●	43%
Corners	10 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	5 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Borussia Dortmund: 23 shots, 5 on target, 2.64 xG. SV Werder Bremen: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Borussia Dortmund 2.64 xG · SV Werder Bremen 0.36 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Borussia Dortmund's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Borussia Dortmund show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · SV Werder Bremen11.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Borussia Dortmund	SV Werder Bremen	Baseline
Shots	15.3 shots/match	11.4 shots/match	12.9 shots/match
Shots against	12.5 shots/match	17.5 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Borussia Dortmund's recent record differs from the season

weak

Borussia Dortmund's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.13 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.6 goals/match	2.13 goals/match	1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.3%●PossessionBorussia Dortmund · SV Werder Bremen47.5%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.8 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Borussia Dortmund	SV Werder Bremen	Baseline
Possession	60.3%	47.5%	47.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Borussia Dortmund

0Draws

1SV Werder Bremen

11 Feb 2023SV Werder Bremen — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0–2

20 Aug 2022Borussia Dortmund — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Borussia Dortmund favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · SV Werder Bremen in 0 · 2 too close

2.13 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 8/81.5 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 8/82.25 goals/match

2.08 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 8/81.53 xG/match

1.22 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 8/82.05 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 8/811.4 shots/match

12.5 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 8/817.5 shots/match

5.13 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 8/83.63 shots/match

3.88 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 8/85.5 shots/match

60.3%●Possessionseason · 8/847.5%

5.38 corners/match●Cornersseason · 8/83.5 corners/match

4.63 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 8/86.5 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/814.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

38%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/813%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 8/863%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Borussia Dortmund91.7

SV Werder Bremen52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Borussia Dortmund67.6

SV Werder Bremen19.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Borussia Dortmund73.2

SV Werder Bremen25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Borussia Dortmund19.4

SV Werder Bremen13.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund25

SV Werder Bremen91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund63.9

SV Werder Bremen19.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Borussia Dortmund55.5

SV Werder Bremen30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Borussia Dortmund8 matchesSV Werder Bremen8 matches

2.13 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.5 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82.25 goals/match

2.08 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.53 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shots8/811.4 shots/match

5.13 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.63 shots/match

60.3%●Possession8/847.5%

5.38 corners/match●Corners8/83.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.3 fouls/matchFouls8/814.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Borussia Dortmund5 matchesSV Werder Bremen4 matches

1.8 goals/match▲Goals scored5/41 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/42.5 goals/match

2.28 xG/match▲Expected goals5/41.49 xG/match

17.4 shots/match▲Shots5/410.5 shots/match

5.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/43.25 shots/match

63.6%●Possession5/452.5%

5.6 corners/match●Corners5/43.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/411.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.1 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples8 / 8home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 20 Oct 2023, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4