PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

Darmstadt 98 0–1 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Köln won 0–1.

Shots
1112
Shots on target
26
Expected goals
0.711.49
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Köln beat Darmstadt 98 1–0. Recorded in this match (Darmstadt 98 – 1. FC Köln): shots 11–12, shots on target 2–6, expected goals 0.71–1.49, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Darmstadt 98's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Darmstadt 98's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match1.15 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Köln have a visible away split

moderate

1. FC Köln's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.71 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.71 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots12 shotsDarmstadt 98 11 shots, 1. FC Köln 12 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots6 shotsDarmstadt 98 2 shots, 1. FC Köln 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.71 xG1.49 xGDarmstadt 98 0.71 xG, 1. FC Köln 1.49 xG
  • Possession45%55%Darmstadt 98 45%, 1. FC Köln 55%
  • Corners1 corner6 cornersDarmstadt 98 1 corner, 1. FC Köln 6 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls12 foulsDarmstadt 98 12 fouls, 1. FC Köln 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Davie Selke · 1. FC Köln · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDejan Ljubičić · 1. FC Köln · 25′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFabian Holland · Darmstadt 98 · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTim Skarke · Darmstadt 98 · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTim Skarke · Darmstadt 98 · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 59′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDavie Selke · 1. FC Köln · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDejan Ljubičić · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMathias Honsak · Darmstadt 98 · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTim Skarke · Darmstadt 98 · 48′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDejan Ljubičić · 1. FC Köln · 57′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTobias Kempe · Darmstadt 98 · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJan Uwe Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 53′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFabian Nürnberger · Darmstadt 98 · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJan Uwe Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 3′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFilip Stojilković · Darmstadt 98 · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 89′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMathias Honsak · Darmstadt 98 · 42′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAaron Seydel · Darmstadt 98 · 54′ · 0.14 xG · on targetMatej Maglica · Darmstadt 98 · 90′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedMax Finkgrafe · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.48 xG · on targetDavie Selke · 1. FC Köln · 60′ · 0.61 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Darmstadt 98: 11 shots, 2 on target, 0.70 xG. 1. FC Köln: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Davie Selke · 1. FC Köln · 60′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Darmstadt 98 0.70 xG · 1. FC Köln 1.49 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Darmstadt 98 favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 5 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Darmstadt 9813 matches1. FC Köln13 matches
1.15 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/130.77 goals/match
2.62 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲ 1.85 goals/match
1.09 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲ 1.22 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots13/13▲ 12.9 shots/match
3.46 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲ 4.77 shots/match
47.1% ●Possession13/1345.5%
3.46 corners/matchCorners13/13● 5.69 corners/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls13/1311.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 1 Dec 2023, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDarmstadt 981. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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