PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

Borussia Dortmund 2–3 RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RB Leipzig won 2–3.

Shots
1826
Shots on target
68
Expected goals
1.592.86
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

RB Leipzig beat Borussia Dortmund 3–2. Recorded in this match (Borussia Dortmund – RB Leipzig): shots 18–26, shots on target 6–8, expected goals 1.59–2.86, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

RB Leipzig's recent record differs from the season

moderate

RB Leipzig's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.43 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible home split

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.9 shots/match14.5 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.5 shots/match ▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · RB Leipzig15.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundRB LeipzigBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match15.9 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against14.8 shots/match10.8 shots/match14.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots26 shotsBorussia Dortmund 18 shots, RB Leipzig 26 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots8 shotsBorussia Dortmund 6 shots, RB Leipzig 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.59 xG2.86 xGBorussia Dortmund 1.59 xG, RB Leipzig 2.86 xG
  • Possession54%46%Borussia Dortmund 54%, RB Leipzig 46%
  • Corners6 corners6 cornersBorussia Dortmund 6 corners, RB Leipzig 6 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls11 foulsBorussia Dortmund 6 fouls, RB Leipzig 11 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Borussia Dortmund
0Draws
3RB Leipzig
Borussia Dortmund — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga2–1
RB Leipzig — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga3–0
Borussia Dortmund — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga1–4
RB Leipzig — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Borussia Dortmund favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 10

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Borussia Dortmund14 matchesRB Leipzig14 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲ 2.43 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲ 1.07 goals/match
1.88 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲ 1.99 xG/match
14.5 shots/matchShots14/14▲ 15.9 shots/match
4.86 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲ 6.71 shots/match
54.9%Possession14/14● 57.9%
4.5 corners/matchCorners14/14● 6.07 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 9 Dec 2023, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBorussia DortmundRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headBorussia Dortmund — RB Leipzig
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required