PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfB Stuttgart and Bayer 04 Leverkusen drew 1–1.

Shots
2218
Shots on target
125
Expected goals
2.661.27
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfB Stuttgart and Bayer 04 Leverkusen drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (VfB Stuttgart – Bayer 04 Leverkusen): shots 22–18, shots on target 12–5, expected goals 2.66–1.27, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.43 goals/match1.57 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have a visible away split

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

13.9 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season16.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.9 shots/match16.9 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots18 shotsVfB Stuttgart 22 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 18 shots
  • Shots on target12 shots5 shotsVfB Stuttgart 12 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.66 xG1.27 xGVfB Stuttgart 2.66 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.27 xG
  • Possession52%48%VfB Stuttgart 52%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 48%
  • Corners8 corners8 cornersVfB Stuttgart 8 corners, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls7 foulsVfB Stuttgart 8 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 19′ · 0.00 xG · on targetVictor Okoh Boniface · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 61′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSilas · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 73′ · 0.02 xG · on targetChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 3′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 7′ · 0.03 xG · on targetVictor Okoh Boniface · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 37′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAtakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGranit Xhaka · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWaldemar Anton · VfB Stuttgart · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDan-Axel Zagadou · VfB Stuttgart · 7′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 29′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.04 xG · on targetVictor Okoh Boniface · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 53′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 89′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 36′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAngelo Stiller · VfB Stuttgart · 81′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 14′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAmine Adli · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 30′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedVictor Okoh Boniface · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 24′ · 0.10 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAmine Adli · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 9′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 25′ · 0.14 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 17′ · 0.18 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 7′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedJosha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart · 7′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 47′ · 0.42 xG · goalSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 25′ · 0.52 xG · on targetChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 40′ · 0.72 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfB Stuttgart: 22 shots, 10 on target, 2.74 xG. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 18 shots, 5 on target, 1.23 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Chris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 40′Florian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 47′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfB Stuttgart 2.74 xG · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.23 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0VfB Stuttgart
1Draws
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfB Stuttgart — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga2–0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga4–2
VfB Stuttgart — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfB Stuttgart favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 5 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfB Stuttgart14 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen14 matches
2.43 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲ 2.79 goals/match
1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲ 0.86 goals/match
2.53 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/142.02 xG/match
16.6 shots/matchShots14/1416.9 shots/match
7 shots/matchShots on target14/147.14 shots/match
57.4%Possession14/14● 60.1%
4.79 corners/matchCorners14/14● 6.86 corners/match
9.57 fouls/matchFouls14/149.07 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Dec 2023, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfB StuttgartBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headVfB Stuttgart — Bayer 04 Leverkusen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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