PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

FC Bayern München 3–0 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 3–0.

Shots
176
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
2.840.41
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat VfB Stuttgart 3–0. Recorded in this match (FC Bayern München – VfB Stuttgart): shots 17–6, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 2.84–0.41, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match2.27 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfB Stuttgart have a visible away split

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season15.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match15.9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.7 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Bayern München · VfB Stuttgart15.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenVfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots19.7 shots/match15.9 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against8.71 shots/match12.2 shots/match14.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots6 shotsFC Bayern München 17 shots, VfB Stuttgart 6 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shotsFC Bayern München 8 shots, VfB Stuttgart 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.84 xG0.41 xGFC Bayern München 2.84 xG, VfB Stuttgart 0.41 xG
  • Possession37%63%FC Bayern München 37%, VfB Stuttgart 63%
  • Corners6 corners2 cornersFC Bayern München 6 corners, VfB Stuttgart 2 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls8 foulsFC Bayern München 7 fouls, VfB Stuttgart 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Raphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 79′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 16′ · 0.03 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 33′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKonrad Laimer · FC Bayern München · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 14′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAtakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart · 20′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKonrad Laimer · FC Bayern München · 8′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 29′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 10′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 12′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.10 xG · on targetKim Min-jae · FC Bayern München · 63′ · 0.10 xG · goalLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedDan-Axel Zagadou · VfB Stuttgart · 87′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 37′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 55′ · 0.27 xG · goalJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 40′ · 0.42 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 2′ · 0.92 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Bayern München: 17 shots, 8 on target, 2.86 xG. VfB Stuttgart: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 2′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 55′Kim Min-jae · FC Bayern München · 63′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 2.86 xG · VfB Stuttgart 0.42 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC Bayern München
2Draws
0VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–2
FC Bayern München — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga2–2
FC Bayern München — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga2–2
VfB Stuttgart — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–5

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Bayern München favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Bayern München14 matchesVfB Stuttgart15 matches
3.36 goals/match ▲Goals scored14/152.27 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed14/151.27 goals/match
2.97 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/152.39 xG/match
19.7 shots/match ▲Shots14/1515.9 shots/match
8 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/156.67 shots/match
61.1% ●Possession14/1557.8%
7.43 corners/match ●Corners14/154.6 corners/match
9.57 fouls/matchFouls14/159.47 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 Dec 2023, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Bayern MünchenVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headFC Bayern München — VfB Stuttgart
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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