PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

SC Freiburg 2–0 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

SC Freiburg won 2–0.

Shots
227
Shots on target
71
Expected goals
3.151.16
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Freiburg beat 1. FC Köln 2–0. Recorded in this match (SC Freiburg – 1. FC Köln): shots 22–7, shots on target 7–1, expected goals 3.15–1.16, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.67 goals/match1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SC Freiburg have a visible home split

moderate

SC Freiburg's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.4 shots/match12.7 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots7 shotsSC Freiburg 22 shots, 1. FC Köln 7 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots1 shotSC Freiburg 7 shots, 1. FC Köln 1 shot
  • Expected goals3.15 xG1.16 xGSC Freiburg 3.15 xG, 1. FC Köln 1.16 xG
  • Possession52%48%SC Freiburg 52%, 1. FC Köln 48%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersSC Freiburg 5 corners, 1. FC Köln 2 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls10 foulsSC Freiburg 13 fouls, 1. FC Köln 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ritsu Doan · SC Freiburg · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 29′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRitsu Doan · SC Freiburg · 4′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMerlin Röhl · SC Freiburg · 11′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 47′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMerlin Röhl · SC Freiburg · 89′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRoland Sallai · SC Freiburg · 90′ · 0.05 xG · goalMichael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedVincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 30′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMerlin Röhl · SC Freiburg · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLuca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMerlin Röhl · SC Freiburg · 82′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedMichael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 85′ · 0.14 xG · on targetRoland Sallai · SC Freiburg · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMerlin Röhl · SC Freiburg · 79′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedJan Uwe Thielmann · 1. FC Köln · 10′ · 0.24 xG · on targetMerlin Röhl · SC Freiburg · 72′ · 0.26 xG · on targetMerlin Röhl · SC Freiburg · 86′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedMichael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 72′ · 0.38 xG · goalRoland Sallai · SC Freiburg · 86′ · 0.55 xG · on targetMark Uth · 1. FC Köln · 68′ · 0.66 xG · off target or blockedRoland Sallai · SC Freiburg · 90′ · 0.75 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Freiburg: 22 shots, 7 on target, 3.41 xG. 1. FC Köln: 7 shots, 1 on target, 1.18 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Michael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 72′Roland Sallai · SC Freiburg · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Freiburg 3.41 xG · 1. FC Köln 1.18 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2SC Freiburg
1Draws
11. FC Köln
1. FC Köln — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga0–1
SC Freiburg — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga2–0
1. FC Köln — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga1–0
SC Freiburg — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SC Freiburg favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SC Freiburg15 matches1. FC Köln15 matches
1.27 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/150.67 goals/match
1.53 goals/match ▲Goals allowed15/151.73 goals/match
1.52 xG/match ▲Expected goals15/151.15 xG/match
12.7 shots/match ▲Shots15/1512 shots/match
4.47 shots/matchShots on target15/154.4 shots/match
47.3% ●Possession15/1546.3%
4.33 corners/matchCorners15/15● 5.13 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls15/1511.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 Dec 2023, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSC Freiburg1. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headSC Freiburg — 1. FC Köln
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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