Bundesliga · 2023Fri, 12 Jan 2024, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

FC Bayern München

WWLWW

3–0Full-time recap

TSG Hoffenheim

DLWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC Bayern München	TSG Hoffenheim
Shots	27 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	11 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.77 xG/match▲	1.22 xG/match
Possession	61%●	39%
Corners	11 corners/match●	2 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

FC Bayern München: 27 shots, 11 on target, 2.86 xG. TSG Hoffenheim: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.23 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 2.86 xG · TSG Hoffenheim 1.23 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season3.25 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	3.25 goals/match	1.53 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

20.3 shots/match▲ShotsFC Bayern München · TSG Hoffenheim13.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	FC Bayern München	TSG Hoffenheim	Baseline
Shots	20.3 shots/match	13.4 shots/match	12.8 shots/match
Shots against	8.63 shots/match	16.3 shots/match	14.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.1%●PossessionFC Bayern München · TSG Hoffenheim47.9%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	FC Bayern München	TSG Hoffenheim	Baseline
Possession	61.1%	47.9%	47.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2FC Bayern München

2Draws

0TSG Hoffenheim

15 Apr 2023FC Bayern München — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–1

22 Oct 2022TSG Hoffenheim — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–2

12 Mar 2022TSG Hoffenheim — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–1

23 Oct 2021FC Bayern München — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

FC Bayern München favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · TSG Hoffenheim in 0 · 2 too close

3.25 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 16/171.88 goals/match

0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/171.94 goals/match

2.95 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 16/171.7 xG/match

0.74 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 16/171.84 xG/match

20.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 16/1713.4 shots/match

8.63 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 16/1716.3 shots/match

8.19 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/174.71 shots/match

2.56 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 16/176.41 shots/match

61.1%●Possessionseason · 16/1747.9%

7.56 corners/match●Cornersseason · 16/174.06 corners/match

2 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 16/175.88 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.63 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1710.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

50%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/176%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1794%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Bayern München97.2

TSG Hoffenheim52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Bayern München97.2

TSG Hoffenheim63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Bayern München95.4

TSG Hoffenheim15.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Bayern München91.7

TSG Hoffenheim63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München16.7

TSG Hoffenheim30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München97.2

TSG Hoffenheim30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Bayern München77.1

TSG Hoffenheim45.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

FC Bayern München16 matchesTSG Hoffenheim17 matches

3.25 goals/match▲Goals scored16/171.88 goals/match

0.94 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/171.94 goals/match

2.95 xG/match▲Expected goals16/171.7 xG/match

20.3 shots/match▲Shots16/1713.4 shots/match

8.19 shots/match▲Shots on target16/174.71 shots/match

61.1%●Possession16/1747.9%

7.56 corners/match●Corners16/174.06 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.63 fouls/matchFouls16/1710.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

FC Bayern München8 matchesTSG Hoffenheim9 matches

4.13 goals/match▲Goals scored8/91.89 goals/match

0.63 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/91.78 goals/match

3.25 xG/match▲Expected goals8/91.54 xG/match

21.8 shots/match▲Shots8/912 shots/match

9.75 shots/match▲Shots on target8/94.67 shots/match

58.6%●Possession8/947.7%

7.88 corners/match●Corners8/93.56 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.13 fouls/matchFouls8/910.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

23 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/124 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples16 / 17home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 12 Jan 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4