PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

FC Bayern München 0–1 SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

SV Werder Bremen won 0–1.

Shots
228
Shots on target
73
Expected goals
1.920.43
Possession
68%32%

Full time

What the match recorded

SV Werder Bremen beat FC Bayern München 1–0. Recorded in this match (FC Bayern München – SV Werder Bremen): shots 22–8, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 1.92–0.43, possession 68%–32%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season3.06 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match3.06 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

20.4 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Bayern München · SV Werder Bremen11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenSV Werder BremenBaseline
Shots20.4 shots/match11.2 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against8.59 shots/match15.9 shots/match14.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.5% ●PossessionFC Bayern München · SV Werder Bremen46.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenSV Werder BremenBaseline
Possession61.5%46.6%47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots22 shots8 shotsFC Bayern München 22 shots, SV Werder Bremen 8 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots3 shotsFC Bayern München 7 shots, SV Werder Bremen 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.92 xG0.43 xGFC Bayern München 1.92 xG, SV Werder Bremen 0.43 xG
  • Possession68%32%FC Bayern München 68%, SV Werder Bremen 32%
  • Corners10 corners2 cornersFC Bayern München 10 corners, SV Werder Bremen 2 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls7 foulsFC Bayern München 12 fouls, SV Werder Bremen 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSenne Lynen · SV Werder Bremen · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 73′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 79′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMitchell Weiser · SV Werder Bremen · 24′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNick Woltemade · SV Werder Bremen · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMitchell Weiser · SV Werder Bremen · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 87′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJustin Njinmah · SV Werder Bremen · 55′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 88′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRomano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 50′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMitchell Weiser · SV Werder Bremen · 59′ · 0.06 xG · goalEric Maxim Choupo-Moting · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 38′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 82′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 7′ · 0.12 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedKonrad Laimer · FC Bayern München · 62′ · 0.14 xG · on targetJens Stage · SV Werder Bremen · 9′ · 0.16 xG · on targetLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 89′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 80′ · 0.23 xG · on targetDayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München · 28′ · 0.49 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Bayern München: 22 shots, 7 on target, 1.96 xG. SV Werder Bremen: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Mitchell Weiser · SV Werder Bremen · 59′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 1.96 xG · SV Werder Bremen 0.42 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3FC Bayern München
0Draws
0SV Werder Bremen
SV Werder Bremen — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–4
SV Werder Bremen — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–2
FC Bayern München — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga6–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Bayern München favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · SV Werder Bremen in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Bayern München17 matchesSV Werder Bremen18 matches
3.06 goals/match ▲Goals scored17/181.39 goals/match
0.94 goals/match ▲Goals allowed17/181.72 goals/match
2.89 xG/match ▲Expected goals17/181.26 xG/match
20.4 shots/match ▲Shots17/1811.2 shots/match
8.12 shots/match ▲Shots on target17/183.56 shots/match
61.5% ●Possession17/1846.6%
7.71 corners/match ●Corners17/183.28 corners/match
9.76 fouls/matchFouls17/1812.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 21 Jan 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Bayern MünchenSV Werder Bremen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headFC Bayern München — SV Werder Bremen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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