PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

RB Leipzig 2–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 2–3.

Shots
1018
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
1.632.04
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat RB Leipzig 3–2. Recorded in this match (RB Leipzig – Bayer 04 Leverkusen): shots 10–18, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 1.63–2.04, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

6.33 corners/matchCornersRB Leipzig · Bayer 04 Leverkusen● 7 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigBayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Corners6.33 corners/match7 corners/match4.64 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

RB Leipzig's recent record differs from the season

moderate

RB Leipzig's last-five shots average is above their season average.

21.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots21.2 shots/match16.8 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots18 shotsRB Leipzig 10 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 18 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsRB Leipzig 6 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.63 xG2.04 xGRB Leipzig 1.63 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.04 xG
  • Possession40%60%RB Leipzig 40%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 60%
  • Corners1 corner9 cornersRB Leipzig 1 corner, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 9 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls13 foulsRB Leipzig 11 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 69′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJonas Hofmann · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPiero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 83′ · 0.02 xG · on targetGranit Xhaka · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 6′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig · 21′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 5′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 14′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig · 22′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPiero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJosip Stanišić · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 85′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 73′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 53′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 59′ · 0.06 xG · on targetExequiel Palacios · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 26′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 36′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 68′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPiero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 80′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 7′ · 0.08 xG · goalBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 42′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 55′ · 0.13 xG · on targetBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 63′ · 0.27 xG · goalPiero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 90′ · 0.31 xG · goalBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 9′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 56′ · 0.57 xG · goalNathan Tella · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 47′ · 0.72 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

RB Leipzig: 10 shots, 6 on target, 1.59 xG. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 18 shots, 5 on target, 2.05 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 7′Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 56′Nathan Tella · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 47′Jonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 63′Piero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: RB Leipzig 1.59 xG · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.05 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2RB Leipzig
0Draws
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga3–2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga2–0
RB Leipzig — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga2–0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga0–1
RB Leipzig — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: RB Leipzig favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 7 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

RB Leipzig18 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen18 matches
2.22 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲ 2.78 goals/match
1.17 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲ 0.78 goals/match
2.11 xG/matchExpected goals18/182.12 xG/match
16.8 shots/matchShots18/1817.1 shots/match
7 shots/matchShots on target18/186.89 shots/match
57.1%Possession18/18● 61.6%
6.33 corners/matchCorners18/18● 7 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls18/188.61 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Jan 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRB LeipzigBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headRB Leipzig — Bayer 04 Leverkusen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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