Bundesliga · 2023Sat, 13 Jan 2024, 14:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

FC Augsburg

DWLDL

0–1Full-time recap

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

WDDWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC Augsburg	Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Shots	3 shots/match	24 shots/match▲
Shots on target	0 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.5 xG/match	1.97 xG/match▲
Possession	24%	76%●
Corners	0 corners/match	12 corners/match●
Fouls	11 fouls/match	4 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

FC Augsburg: 3 shots, 0 on target, 0.41 xG. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 24 shots, 6 on target, 1.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Augsburg 0.41 xG · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.95 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Augsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: FC Augsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

FC Augsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Augsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.41 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.6 goals/match	1.41 goals/match	1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Augsburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC Augsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match▲ShotsFC Augsburg · Bayer 04 Leverkusen17.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	FC Augsburg	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	Baseline
Shots	11.6 shots/match	17.1 shots/match	12.8 shots/match
Shots against	15.8 shots/match	8.88 shots/match	14.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.3%PossessionFC Augsburg · Bayer 04 Leverkusen●61.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	FC Augsburg	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	Baseline
Possession	40.3%	61.6%	47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2FC Augsburg

0Draws

2Bayer 04 Leverkusen

3 Feb 2023FC Augsburg — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–0

13 Aug 2022Bayer 04 Leverkusen — FC Augsburg · Bundesliga1–2

22 Jan 2022Bayer 04 Leverkusen — FC Augsburg · Bundesliga5–1

28 Aug 2021FC Augsburg — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

FC Augsburg favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 11 · 2 too close

1.41 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 17/17▲2.76 goals/match

1.88 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 17/17▲0.71 goals/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 17/17▲2.12 xG/match

1.69 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 17/17▲0.95 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 17/17▲17.1 shots/match

15.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 17/17▲8.88 shots/match

3.53 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 17/17▲7 shots/match

6 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 17/17▲3.65 shots/match

40.3%Possessionseason · 17/17●61.6%

3.65 corners/matchCornersseason · 17/17●6.88 corners/match

5.53 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 17/17▲3.47 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 17/178.35 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 17/17▲47%

71%Scoring frequencyseason · 17/17▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Augsburg2.8

Bayer 04 Leverkusen97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Augsburg20.4

Bayer 04 Leverkusen88

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Augsburg25.9

Bayer 04 Leverkusen91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Augsburg80.6

Bayer 04 Leverkusen63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg63.9

Bayer 04 Leverkusen2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Augsburg13.9

Bayer 04 Leverkusen91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Augsburg24.3

Bayer 04 Leverkusen66.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

FC Augsburg17 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen17 matches

1.41 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲2.76 goals/match

1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲0.71 goals/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲2.12 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShots17/17▲17.1 shots/match

3.53 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲7 shots/match

40.3%Possession17/17●61.6%

3.65 corners/matchCorners17/17●6.88 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls17/178.35 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

FC Augsburg9 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen8 matches

1.78 goals/matchGoals scored9/8▲2.25 goals/match

1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed9/8▲0.75 goals/match

1.33 xG/matchExpected goals9/8▲1.65 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShots9/8▲15.1 shots/match

3.89 shots/matchShots on target9/8▲5.75 shots/match

38.8%Possession9/8●57%

3.56 corners/matchCorners9/8●5.63 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls9/88 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

23.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/123.8 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples17 / 17home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Jan 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4