PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

FC Augsburg 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 0–1.

Shots
324
Shots on target
06
Expected goals
0.51.97
Possession
24%76%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat FC Augsburg 1–0. Recorded in this match (FC Augsburg – Bayer 04 Leverkusen): shots 3–24, shots on target 0–6, expected goals 0.5–1.97, possession 24%–76%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Augsburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Augsburg's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.41 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.41 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Augsburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC Augsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Augsburg · Bayer 04 Leverkusen17.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC AugsburgBayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match17.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against15.8 shots/match8.88 shots/match14.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.3%PossessionFC Augsburg · Bayer 04 Leverkusen● 61.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC AugsburgBayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Possession40.3%61.6%47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots3 shots24 shotsFC Augsburg 3 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 24 shots
  • Shots on target0 shots6 shotsFC Augsburg 0 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.5 xG1.97 xGFC Augsburg 0.5 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.97 xG
  • Possession24%76%FC Augsburg 24%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 76%
  • Corners0 corners12 cornersFC Augsburg 0 corners, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 12 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls4 foulsFC Augsburg 11 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Piero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedExequiel Palacios · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedExequiel Palacios · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGranit Xhaka · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRubén Vargas · FC Augsburg · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedExequiel Palacios · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 48′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 18′ · 0.04 xG · on targetGranit Xhaka · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGranit Xhaka · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonas Hofmann · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 88′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 76′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 69′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 82′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJonas Hofmann · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 32′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPiero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 67′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · FC Augsburg · 22′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 34′ · 0.14 xG · on targetPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 71′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAdam Hložek · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 18′ · 0.16 xG · on targetRobert Andrich · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 37′ · 0.20 xG · on targetPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 59′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedPhillip Tietz · FC Augsburg · 38′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedExequiel Palacios · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 90′ · 0.31 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Augsburg: 3 shots, 0 on target, 0.41 xG. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 24 shots, 6 on target, 1.95 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Exequiel Palacios · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Augsburg 0.41 xG · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.95 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FC Augsburg
0Draws
2Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Augsburg — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — FC Augsburg · Bundesliga1–2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — FC Augsburg · Bundesliga5–1
FC Augsburg — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Augsburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Augsburg17 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen17 matches
1.41 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲ 2.76 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed17/17▲ 0.71 goals/match
1.35 xG/matchExpected goals17/17▲ 2.12 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots17/17▲ 17.1 shots/match
3.53 shots/matchShots on target17/17▲ 7 shots/match
40.3%Possession17/17● 61.6%
3.65 corners/matchCorners17/17● 6.88 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls17/178.35 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Jan 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC AugsburgBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headFC Augsburg — Bayer 04 Leverkusen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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