PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

SV Werder Bremen 1–2 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Heidenheim won 1–2.

Shots
1511
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.761.79
Possession
66%34%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Heidenheim beat SV Werder Bremen 2–1. Recorded in this match (SV Werder Bremen – 1. FC Heidenheim): shots 15–11, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.76–1.79, possession 66%–34%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.43 goals/match1.45 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Heidenheim have a visible away split

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.18 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.18 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

12.8 fouls/matchFoulsSV Werder Bremen · 1. FC Heidenheim13.3 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricSV Werder Bremen1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Fouls12.8 fouls/match13.3 fouls/match11.3 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots11 shotsSV Werder Bremen 15 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 11 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsSV Werder Bremen 3 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.76 xG1.79 xGSV Werder Bremen 1.76 xG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.79 xG
  • Possession66%34%SV Werder Bremen 66%, 1. FC Heidenheim 34%
  • Corners5 corners10 cornersSV Werder Bremen 5 corners, 1. FC Heidenheim 10 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsSV Werder Bremen 10 fouls, 1. FC Heidenheim 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Benedikt Gimber · 1. FC Heidenheim · 31′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJonas Föhrenbach · 1. FC Heidenheim · 86′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJonas Föhrenbach · 1. FC Heidenheim · 35′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarco Friedl · SV Werder Bremen · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarco Friedl · SV Werder Bremen · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNick Woltemade · SV Werder Bremen · 79′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 87′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMarvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 78′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAnthony Jung · SV Werder Bremen · 80′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJustin Njinmah · SV Werder Bremen · 45′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLennard Maloney · 1. FC Heidenheim · 76′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNorman Theuerkauf · 1. FC Heidenheim · 86′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRafael Borré · SV Werder Bremen · 77′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDawid Kownacki · SV Werder Bremen · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 67′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMichael Zetterer · SV Werder Bremen · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRafael Borré · SV Werder Bremen · 80′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLennard Maloney · 1. FC Heidenheim · 12′ · 0.14 xG · goalDawid Kownacki · SV Werder Bremen · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 77′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedEren Dinkçi · 1. FC Heidenheim · 18′ · 0.18 xG · on targetJens Stage · SV Werder Bremen · 4′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 38′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedRomano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen · 19′ · 0.53 xG · goalJan-Niklas Beste · 1. FC Heidenheim · 18′ · 0.96 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SV Werder Bremen: 15 shots, 3 on target, 1.76 xG. 1. FC Heidenheim: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.92 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Romano Schmid · SV Werder Bremen · 19′Lennard Maloney · 1. FC Heidenheim · 12′Jan-Niklas Beste · 1. FC Heidenheim · 18′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SV Werder Bremen 1.76 xG · 1. FC Heidenheim 1.92 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1SV Werder Bremen
0Draws
21. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga4–2
1. FC Heidenheim — SV Werder Bremen · 2. Bundesliga2–1
SV Werder Bremen — 1. FC Heidenheim · 2. Bundesliga3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SV Werder Bremen favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 2 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SV Werder Bremen21 matches1. FC Heidenheim21 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored21/211.43 goals/match
1.62 goals/match ▲Goals allowed21/211.71 goals/match
1.31 xG/matchExpected goals21/211.27 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots21/2111.8 shots/match
3.38 shots/matchShots on target21/213.33 shots/match
47% ●Possession21/2141.2%
3.33 corners/matchCorners21/21● 5.76 corners/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls21/2113.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 Feb 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSV Werder Bremen1. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headSV Werder Bremen — 1. FC Heidenheim
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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