PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

VfL Bochum 1848 3–2 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfL Bochum 1848 won 3–2.

Shots
1327
Shots on target
410
Expected goals
1.673.42
Possession
31%69%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfL Bochum 1848 beat FC Bayern München 3–2. Recorded in this match (VfL Bochum 1848 – FC Bayern München): shots 13–27, shots on target 4–10, expected goals 1.67–3.42, possession 31%–69%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.77 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.77 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.1 shots/match ▲ShotsVfL Bochum 1848 · FC Bayern München19.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfL Bochum 1848FC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots14.1 shots/match19.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against15.8 shots/match9.23 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

VfL Bochum 1848 have a visible home split

moderate

VfL Bochum 1848's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.1 shots/match14.1 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots27 shotsVfL Bochum 1848 13 shots, FC Bayern München 27 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots10 shotsVfL Bochum 1848 4 shots, FC Bayern München 10 shots
  • Expected goals1.67 xG3.42 xGVfL Bochum 1848 1.67 xG, FC Bayern München 3.42 xG
  • Possession31%69%VfL Bochum 1848 31%, FC Bayern München 69%
  • Corners4 corners9 cornersVfL Bochum 1848 4 corners, FC Bayern München 9 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls10 foulsVfL Bochum 1848 12 fouls, FC Bayern München 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kevin Stöger · VfL Bochum 1848 · 2′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKevin Stöger · VfL Bochum 1848 · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBryan Zaragoza · FC Bayern München · 65′ · 0.01 xG · on targetTakuma Asano · VfL Bochum 1848 · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKevin Stöger · VfL Bochum 1848 · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMoritz Kwarteng · VfL Bochum 1848 · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEric Maxim Choupo-Moting · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKevin Stöger · VfL Bochum 1848 · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEric Dier · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 64′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 83′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 85′ · 0.05 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 13′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 17′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 14′ · 0.07 xG · goalJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 35′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 64′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPhilipp Förster · VfL Bochum 1848 · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMatthijs de Ligt · FC Bayern München · 14′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTakuma Asano · VfL Bochum 1848 · 38′ · 0.08 xG · goalMoritz Kwarteng · VfL Bochum 1848 · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 87′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedKeven Schlotterbeck · VfL Bochum 1848 · 44′ · 0.13 xG · goalJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 14′ · 0.15 xG · on targetAnthony Losilla · VfL Bochum 1848 · 6′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMoritz Broschinski · VfL Bochum 1848 · 36′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 10′ · 0.29 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.31 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 19′ · 0.44 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 86′ · 0.52 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 87′ · 0.57 xG · goalKevin Stöger · VfL Bochum 1848 · 78′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Bochum 1848: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.69 xG. FC Bayern München: 27 shots, 9 on target, 3.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Takuma Asano · VfL Bochum 1848 · 38′Keven Schlotterbeck · VfL Bochum 1848 · 44′Kevin Stöger · VfL Bochum 1848 · 78′Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 14′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 87′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Bochum 1848 1.69 xG · FC Bayern München 3.49 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Bochum 1848 favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Bochum 184822 matchesFC Bayern München22 matches
1.18 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲ 2.77 goals/match
1.86 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲ 1.14 goals/match
1.3 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲ 2.71 xG/match
14.1 shots/matchShots22/22▲ 19.9 shots/match
4.41 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲ 7.68 shots/match
44.1%Possession22/22● 62%
3.64 corners/matchCorners22/22● 7.68 corners/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls22/229.77 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Feb 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL Bochum 1848FC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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