PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2023

Lazio 1–0 FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League

Lazio

WLWWL
1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Lazio won 1–0.

Shots
1117
Shots on target
40
Expected goals
1.631.1
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Lazio beat FC Bayern München 1–0. Recorded in this match (Lazio – FC Bayern München): shots 11–17, shots on target 4–0, expected goals 1.63–1.1, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.71 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lazio have a visible home split

weak

Lazio's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.6%PossessionLazio · FC Bayern München● 58.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLazioFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Possession44.6%58.6%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots17 shotsLazio 11 shots, FC Bayern München 17 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots0 shotsLazio 4 shots, FC Bayern München 0 shots
  • Expected goals1.63 xG1.1 xGLazio 1.63 xG, FC Bayern München 1.1 xG
  • Possession39%61%Lazio 39%, FC Bayern München 61%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersLazio 3 corners, FC Bayern München 5 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls8 foulsLazio 7 fouls, FC Bayern München 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Raphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 86′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 10′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLuis Alberto · Lazio · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNoussair Mazraoui · FC Bayern München · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNoussair Mazraoui · FC Bayern München · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGustav Isaksen · Lazio · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMattéo Guendouzi · Lazio · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGustav Isaksen · Lazio · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEric Maxim Choupo-Moting · FC Bayern München · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMario Gila Fuentes · Lazio · 18′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLuis Alberto · Lazio · 22′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPedro · Lazio · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 2′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMario Gila Fuentes · Lazio · 50′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFelipe Anderson · Lazio · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 40′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedKim Min-jae · FC Bayern München · 73′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 7′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 52′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedGustav Isaksen · Lazio · 48′ · 0.42 xG · on targetCiro Immobile · Lazio · 69′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lazio: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.68 xG. FC Bayern München: 17 shots, 0 on target, 1.08 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Ciro Immobile · Lazio · 69′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lazio 1.68 xG · FC Bayern München 1.08 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lazio favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 5 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lazio7 matchesFC Bayern München7 matches
1.14 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲ 1.71 goals/match
1 goal/matchGoals allowed7/71 goal/match
1.46 xG/matchExpected goals7/71.53 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots7/7▲ 14.3 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲ 4.29 shots/match
44.6%Possession7/7● 58.6%
5 corners/matchCorners7/7● 5.57 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls7/79.29 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 15 Feb 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLazioFC Bayern München
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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