PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 2–1.

Shots
1713
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
1.161.11
Possession
67%33%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat 1. FSV Mainz 05 2–1. Recorded in this match (Bayer 04 Leverkusen – 1. FSV Mainz 05): shots 17–13, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 1.16–1.11, possession 67%–33%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.57 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.57 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FSV Mainz 05 show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

17.6 shots/match ▲ShotsBayer 04 Leverkusen · 1. FSV Mainz 0513.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayer 04 Leverkusen1. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Shots17.6 shots/match13.7 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against8.74 shots/match11.5 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.7% ●PossessionBayer 04 Leverkusen · 1. FSV Mainz 0546.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayer 04 Leverkusen1. FSV Mainz 05Baseline
Possession61.7%46.3%47.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots13 shotsBayer 04 Leverkusen 17 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 13 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsBayer 04 Leverkusen 7 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.16 xG1.11 xGBayer 04 Leverkusen 1.16 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.11 xG
  • Possession67%33%Bayer 04 Leverkusen 67%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 33%
  • Corners11 corners2 cornersBayer 04 Leverkusen 11 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 2 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls16 foulsBayer 04 Leverkusen 14 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Leandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 15′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEdmond Tapsoba · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGranit Xhaka · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 3′ · 0.02 xG · goalKarim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 10′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEdmond Tapsoba · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAmine Adli · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRobert Andrich · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 68′ · 0.02 xG · goalTom Krauß · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 15′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGranit Xhaka · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 20′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJonas Hofmann · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTom Krauß · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 41′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJessic Ngankam · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 43′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 28′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 48′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJonas Hofmann · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 28′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJonas Hofmann · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 16′ · 0.14 xG · on targetDominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 7′ · 0.17 xG · goalJonas Hofmann · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 40′ · 0.24 xG · on targetLeandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 50′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 22′ · 0.28 xG · on targetJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 55′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 17 shots, 7 on target, 1.15 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Granit Xhaka · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 3′Robert Andrich · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 68′Dominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 7′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.15 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.12 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Bayer 04 Leverkusen
0Draws
21. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga0–3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga2–3
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga0–3
1. FSV Mainz 05 — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga3–2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bayer 04 Leverkusen favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bayer 04 Leverkusen23 matches1. FSV Mainz 0523 matches
2.57 goals/match ▲Goals scored23/230.78 goals/match
0.7 goals/match ▲Goals allowed23/231.61 goals/match
2.06 xG/match ▲Expected goals23/231.14 xG/match
17.6 shots/match ▲Shots23/2313.7 shots/match
6.87 shots/match ▲Shots on target23/234.04 shots/match
61.7% ●Possession23/2346.3%
6.83 corners/match ●Corners23/235.13 corners/match
9.13 fouls/matchFouls23/2314.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 23 Feb 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBayer 04 Leverkusen1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headBayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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