PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023Sat, 24 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricFC Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig
Shots16 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.54 xG/match▲0.88 xG/match
Possession57%●43%
Corners6 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig · 1′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 37′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedXaver Schlager · RB Leipzig · 61′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAmadou Haidara · RB Leipzig · 53′ · 0.05 xG · on targetEljif Elmas · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 79′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 1′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 55′ · 0.07 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 42′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKonrad Laimer · FC Bayern München · 68′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEric Maxim Choupo-Moting · FC Bayern München · 85′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.08 xG · goalMohamed Simakan · RB Leipzig · 53′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 5′ · 0.11 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 64′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 70′ · 0.11 xG · goalBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 64′ · 0.12 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 42′ · 0.16 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 56′ · 0.19 xG · goalBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 61′ · 0.25 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 80′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Bayern München: 16 shots, 4 on target, 1.52 xG. RB Leipzig: 11 shots, 6 on target, 0.88 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 56′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 90′Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 70′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 1.52 xG · RB Leipzig 0.88 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: RB Leipzig's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

RB Leipzig's recent record differs from the season

moderate

RB Leipzig's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season15.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match15.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

strong

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.61 corners/match●CornersFC Bayern München · RB Leipzig5.96 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenRB LeipzigBaseline
Corners7.61 corners/match5.96 corners/match4.65 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.7 shots/match▲ShotsFC Bayern München · RB Leipzig15.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenRB LeipzigBaseline
Shots19.7 shots/match15.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against9.3 shots/match11.5 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2FC Bayern München
2Draws
1RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–2
FC Bayern München — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga1–3
RB Leipzig — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–1
FC Bayern München — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga3–2
RB Leipzig — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

FC Bayern München favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 0 · 3 too close

2.74 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 23/232.13 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 23/231.3 goals/match
2.66 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 23/231.88 xG/match
0.87 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 23/231.21 xG/match
19.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 23/2315.6 shots/match
9.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 23/2311.5 shots/match
7.52 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 23/236.78 shots/match
3.17 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 23/233.43 shots/match
61.7%●Possessionseason · 23/2356%
7.61 corners/match●Cornersseason · 23/235.96 corners/match
2.43 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 23/234 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
9.83 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 23/2310.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
39%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 23/2330%
91%Scoring frequencyseason · 23/2387%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Bayern München97.2
RB Leipzig75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Bayern München97.2
RB Leipzig82.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Bayern München93.5
RB Leipzig79.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Bayern München91.7
RB Leipzig63.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München16.7
RB Leipzig30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München97.2
RB Leipzig86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Bayern München77.1
RB Leipzig70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

FC Bayern München23 matchesRB Leipzig23 matches
2.74 goals/match▲Goals scored23/232.13 goals/match
1.13 goals/match▲Goals allowed23/231.3 goals/match
2.66 xG/match▲Expected goals23/231.88 xG/match
19.7 shots/match▲Shots23/2315.6 shots/match
7.52 shots/match▲Shots on target23/236.78 shots/match
61.7%●Possession23/2356%
7.61 corners/match●Corners23/235.96 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.83 fouls/matchFouls23/2310.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

FC Bayern München12 matchesRB Leipzig11 matches
3.25 goals/match▲Goals scored12/111.73 goals/match
0.67 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/111.82 goals/match
2.8 xG/match▲Expected goals12/111.44 xG/match
21.2 shots/match▲Shots12/1113.5 shots/match
8.75 shots/match▲Shots on target12/116 shots/match
60.2%●Possession12/1154.4%
8.08 corners/match●Corners12/115.18 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.25 fouls/matchFouls12/1110 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 24 Feb 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsFC Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath