PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

Borussia Dortmund 2–3 TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

TSG Hoffenheim won 2–3.

Shots
219
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
1.941.25
Possession
70%30%

Full time

What the match recorded

TSG Hoffenheim beat Borussia Dortmund 3–2. Recorded in this match (Borussia Dortmund – TSG Hoffenheim): shots 21–9, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 1.94–1.25, possession 70%–30%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

TSG Hoffenheim's recent record differs from the season

weak

TSG Hoffenheim's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.78 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.78 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible home split

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.5 shots/match15.7 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Borussia Dortmund show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.7 shots/match ▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · TSG Hoffenheim13.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundTSG HoffenheimBaseline
Shots15.7 shots/match13.9 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against13.8 shots/match15.7 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots9 shotsBorussia Dortmund 21 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 9 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsBorussia Dortmund 7 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.94 xG1.25 xGBorussia Dortmund 1.94 xG, TSG Hoffenheim 1.25 xG
  • Possession70%30%Borussia Dortmund 70%, TSG Hoffenheim 30%
  • Corners10 corners3 cornersBorussia Dortmund 10 corners, TSG Hoffenheim 3 corners
  • Fouls7 fouls10 foulsBorussia Dortmund 7 fouls, TSG Hoffenheim 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Marcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 7′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 9′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAnton Stach · TSG Hoffenheim · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIan Maatsen · Borussia Dortmund · 18′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIhlas Bebou · TSG Hoffenheim · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 61′ · 0.04 xG · goalPavel Kadeřábek · TSG Hoffenheim · 1′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarco Reus · Borussia Dortmund · 69′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMarco Reus · Borussia Dortmund · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedUmut Tohumcu · TSG Hoffenheim · 27′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 15′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 56′ · 0.07 xG · on targetDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 7′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 56′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 69′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMarco Reus · Borussia Dortmund · 81′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 20′ · 0.09 xG · on targetNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 75′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedEmre Can · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedIhlas Bebou · TSG Hoffenheim · 2′ · 0.20 xG · goalJohn Brooks · TSG Hoffenheim · 73′ · 0.23 xG · on targetNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 25′ · 0.42 xG · goalDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 21′ · 0.44 xG · goalMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 64′ · 0.60 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Borussia Dortmund: 21 shots, 7 on target, 1.97 xG. TSG Hoffenheim: 9 shots, 5 on target, 1.28 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Donyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 21′Nico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 25′Ihlas Bebou · TSG Hoffenheim · 2′Maximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 61′Maximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 64′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Borussia Dortmund 1.97 xG · TSG Hoffenheim 1.28 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

5Borussia Dortmund
0Draws
0TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga1–3
TSG Hoffenheim — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0–1
Borussia Dortmund — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–0
TSG Hoffenheim — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga2–3
Borussia Dortmund — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Borussia Dortmund favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · TSG Hoffenheim in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Borussia Dortmund23 matchesTSG Hoffenheim23 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored23/231.78 goals/match
1.3 goals/match ▲Goals allowed23/231.87 goals/match
1.98 xG/match ▲Expected goals23/231.67 xG/match
15.7 shots/match ▲Shots23/2313.9 shots/match
5.57 shots/match ▲Shots on target23/234.78 shots/match
58.5% ●Possession23/2349.9%
5.04 corners/match ●Corners23/234.39 corners/match
9.87 fouls/matchFouls23/2310.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 25 Feb 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBorussia DortmundTSG Hoffenheim
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headBorussia Dortmund — TSG Hoffenheim
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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