PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

TSG Hoffenheim won 2–1.

Shots
1418
Shots on target
77
Expected goals
1.71.29
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

TSG Hoffenheim beat SV Werder Bremen 2–1. Recorded in this match (TSG Hoffenheim – SV Werder Bremen): shots 14–18, shots on target 7–7, expected goals 1.7–1.29, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

SV Werder Bremen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SV Werder Bremen's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.38 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots18 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 14 shots, SV Werder Bremen 18 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots7 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 7 shots, SV Werder Bremen 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.7 xG1.29 xGTSG Hoffenheim 1.7 xG, SV Werder Bremen 1.29 xG
  • Possession47%53%TSG Hoffenheim 47%, SV Werder Bremen 53%
  • Corners3 corners3 cornersTSG Hoffenheim 3 corners, SV Werder Bremen 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls10 foulsTSG Hoffenheim 11 fouls, SV Werder Bremen 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Anton Stach · TSG Hoffenheim · 21′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFlorian Grillitsch · TSG Hoffenheim · 56′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedChristian Groß · SV Werder Bremen · 63′ · 0.01 xG · on targetSkelly Alvero · SV Werder Bremen · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetIhlas Bebou · TSG Hoffenheim · 7′ · 0.02 xG · on targetUmut Tohumcu · TSG Hoffenheim · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedUmut Tohumcu · TSG Hoffenheim · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSenne Lynen · SV Werder Bremen · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIhlas Bebou · TSG Hoffenheim · 82′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJustin Njinmah · SV Werder Bremen · 82′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMarvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 14′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAnton Stach · TSG Hoffenheim · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMitchell Weiser · SV Werder Bremen · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 8′ · 0.04 xG · goalSkelly Alvero · SV Werder Bremen · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMitchell Weiser · SV Werder Bremen · 81′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 39′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSkelly Alvero · SV Werder Bremen · 81′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMitchell Weiser · SV Werder Bremen · 84′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 19′ · 0.10 xG · on targetFelix Agu · SV Werder Bremen · 22′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Ducksch · SV Werder Bremen · 25′ · 0.11 xG · on targetJustin Njinmah · SV Werder Bremen · 87′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSkelly Alvero · SV Werder Bremen · 90′ · 0.14 xG · goalFlorian Grillitsch · TSG Hoffenheim · 60′ · 0.16 xG · on targetFelix Agu · SV Werder Bremen · 52′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen · 90′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedIhlas Bebou · TSG Hoffenheim · 15′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 44′ · 0.31 xG · goalMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 6′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 58′ · 0.38 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

TSG Hoffenheim: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.68 xG. SV Werder Bremen: 18 shots, 7 on target, 1.28 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Maximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 8′Maximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 44′Skelly Alvero · SV Werder Bremen · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: TSG Hoffenheim 1.68 xG · SV Werder Bremen 1.28 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2TSG Hoffenheim
0Draws
1SV Werder Bremen
SV Werder Bremen — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–3
SV Werder Bremen — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–2
TSG Hoffenheim — SV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: TSG Hoffenheim favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · SV Werder Bremen in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

TSG Hoffenheim24 matchesSV Werder Bremen24 matches
1.79 goals/match ▲Goals scored24/241.38 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲ 1.54 goals/match
1.67 xG/match ▲Expected goals24/241.35 xG/match
13.9 shots/match ▲Shots24/2411.8 shots/match
4.88 shots/match ▲Shots on target24/243.58 shots/match
49.8% ●Possession24/2447.4%
4.33 corners/match ●Corners24/243.33 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls24/2412.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Mar 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTSG HoffenheimSV Werder Bremen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headTSG Hoffenheim — SV Werder Bremen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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