PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FC Köln 0–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

0–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 0–2.

Shots
617
Shots on target
05
Expected goals
11.59
Possession
22%78%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat 1. FC Köln 2–0. Recorded in this match (1. FC Köln – Bayer 04 Leverkusen): shots 6–17, shots on target 0–5, expected goals 1–1.59, possession 22%–78%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Köln show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

1. FC Köln's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12 shots/match ▲Shots1. FC Köln · Bayer 04 Leverkusen17.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC KölnBayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Shots12 shots/match17.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against14.8 shots/match8.63 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

weak

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.67 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Köln have a visible home split

moderate

1. FC Köln's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match12 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots17 shots1. FC Köln 6 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 17 shots
  • Shots on target0 shots5 shots1. FC Köln 0 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 shots
  • Expected goals1 xG1.59 xG1. FC Köln 1 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.59 xG
  • Possession22%78%1. FC Köln 22%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 78%
  • Corners1 corner9 corners1. FC Köln 1 corner, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 9 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls9 fouls1. FC Köln 10 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Timo Hübers · 1. FC Köln · 49′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 77′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSargis Adamyan · 1. FC Köln · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNathan Tella · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 25′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSargis Adamyan · 1. FC Köln · 35′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 37′ · 0.06 xG · on targetPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 37′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 41′ · 0.08 xG · on targetFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 82′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFaride Alidou · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJonas Hofmann · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 3′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 73′ · 0.15 xG · goalSargis Adamyan · 1. FC Köln · 51′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedDejan Ljubičić · 1. FC Köln · 11′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 37′ · 0.65 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 6 shots, 0 on target, 1.00 xG. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 17 shots, 5 on target, 1.57 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Jeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 37′Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 73′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 1.00 xG · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.57 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

21. FC Köln
1Draws
2Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga3–0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga1–2
1. FC Köln — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga0–1
1. FC Köln — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Köln favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Köln24 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen24 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲ 2.54 goals/match
1.63 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲ 0.67 goals/match
1.04 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲ 2.04 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots24/24▲ 17.6 shots/match
4.13 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲ 6.79 shots/match
45%Possession24/24● 62.3%
5.29 corners/matchCorners24/24● 6.92 corners/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls24/249.13 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Mar 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC KölnBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-head1. FC Köln — Bayer 04 Leverkusen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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