PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

VfL Wolfsburg 2–3 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfB Stuttgart won 2–3.

Shots
127
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
0.861.14
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfB Stuttgart beat VfL Wolfsburg 3–2. Recorded in this match (VfL Wolfsburg – VfB Stuttgart): shots 12–7, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.86–1.14, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

weak

VfB Stuttgart's last-five shots average is below their season average.

12.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season15.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match15.4 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfL Wolfsburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

VfL Wolfsburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.4 shots/match ▲ShotsVfL Wolfsburg · VfB Stuttgart15.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgVfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match15.4 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against13 shots/match11.4 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.8%PossessionVfL Wolfsburg · VfB Stuttgart● 59.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfL WolfsburgVfB StuttgartBaseline
Possession47.8%59.5%47.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots7 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 12 shots, VfB Stuttgart 7 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsVfL Wolfsburg 2 shots, VfB Stuttgart 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.86 xG1.14 xGVfL Wolfsburg 0.86 xG, VfB Stuttgart 1.14 xG
  • Possession41%59%VfL Wolfsburg 41%, VfB Stuttgart 59%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersVfL Wolfsburg 5 corners, VfB Stuttgart 4 corners
  • Fouls19 fouls14 foulsVfL Wolfsburg 19 fouls, VfB Stuttgart 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kevin Paredes · VfL Wolfsburg · 16′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 37′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 46′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJosha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart · 78′ · 0.03 xG · goalSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 14′ · 0.04 xG · goalAmin Sarr · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAster Vranckx · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMoritz Jenz · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMaxence Lacroix · VfL Wolfsburg · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJoakim Mæhle · VfL Wolfsburg · 50′ · 0.08 xG · goalSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 63′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 83′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedVáclav Černý · VfL Wolfsburg · 2′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJosha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart · 11′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedLukas Nmecha · VfL Wolfsburg · 83′ · 0.15 xG · goalYannick Gerhardt · VfL Wolfsburg · 16′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 54′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfL Wolfsburg: 12 shots, 2 on target, 0.86 xG. VfB Stuttgart: 7 shots, 3 on target, 1.15 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Joakim Mæhle · VfL Wolfsburg · 50′Lukas Nmecha · VfL Wolfsburg · 83′Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 14′Serhou Guirassy · VfB Stuttgart · 54′Josha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart · 78′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfL Wolfsburg 0.86 xG · VfB Stuttgart 1.15 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2VfL Wolfsburg
1Draws
2VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga3–1
VfB Stuttgart — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga0–1
VfL Wolfsburg — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga3–2
VfB Stuttgart — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–1
VfL Wolfsburg — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfL Wolfsburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfL Wolfsburg24 matchesVfB Stuttgart24 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲ 2.29 goals/match
1.63 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲ 1.29 goals/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲ 2.17 xG/match
12.4 shots/matchShots24/24▲ 15.4 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲ 6.33 shots/match
47.8%Possession24/24● 59.5%
4.29 corners/matchCorners24/24● 4.92 corners/match
13 fouls/matchFouls24/2410 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Mar 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfL WolfsburgVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headVfL Wolfsburg — VfB Stuttgart
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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