Bundesliga · 2023Fri, 1 Mar 2024, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

SC Freiburg

LLLDL

2–2Full-time recap

FC Bayern München

WWLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	SC Freiburg	FC Bayern München
Shots	17 shots/match	20 shots/match▲
Shots on target	6 shots/match	8 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.52 xG/match	1.81 xG/match▲
Possession	38%	62%●
Corners	3 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	11 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

SC Freiburg: 17 shots, 6 on target, 1.75 xG. FC Bayern München: 20 shots, 7 on target, 1.84 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Freiburg 1.75 xG · FC Bayern München 1.84 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: SC Freiburg's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.71 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.8 goals/match	2.71 goals/match	1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SC Freiburg have a visible home split

strong

SC Freiburg's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.2 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.2 shots/match	12 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12 shots/match▲ShotsSC Freiburg · FC Bayern München19.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	SC Freiburg	FC Bayern München	Baseline
Shots	12 shots/match	19.7 shots/match	13.1 shots/match
Shots against	14.5 shots/match	9.63 shots/match	14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0SC Freiburg

0Draws

5FC Bayern München

8 Oct 2023FC Bayern München — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga3–0

8 Apr 2023SC Freiburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–1

16 Oct 2022FC Bayern München — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga5–0

2 Apr 2022SC Freiburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–4

6 Nov 2021FC Bayern München — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

SC Freiburg favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11 · 2 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 24/24▲2.71 goals/match

1.83 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 24/24▲1.17 goals/match

1.53 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 24/24▲2.62 xG/match

1.54 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 24/24▲0.89 xG/match

12 shots/matchShotsseason · 24/24▲19.7 shots/match

14.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 24/24▲9.63 shots/match

4.54 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 24/24▲7.54 shots/match

4.71 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 24/24▲3.29 shots/match

46.3%Possessionseason · 24/24●61.8%

3.96 corners/matchCornersseason · 24/24●7.54 corners/match

5.25 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 24/24▲2.46 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 24/249.71 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 24/24▲38%

79%Scoring frequencyseason · 24/24▲92%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

SC Freiburg36.1

FC Bayern München97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

SC Freiburg39.8

FC Bayern München97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

SC Freiburg41.7

FC Bayern München93.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

SC Freiburg13.9

FC Bayern München91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg36.1

FC Bayern München13.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

SC Freiburg19.4

FC Bayern München97.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

SC Freiburg34.7

FC Bayern München76.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

SC Freiburg24 matchesFC Bayern München24 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲2.71 goals/match

1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲1.17 goals/match

1.53 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲2.62 xG/match

12 shots/matchShots24/24▲19.7 shots/match

4.54 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲7.54 shots/match

46.3%Possession24/24●61.8%

3.96 corners/matchCorners24/24●7.54 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls24/249.71 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

SC Freiburg12 matchesFC Bayern München12 matches

1.83 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲2.17 goals/match

1.58 goals/match▲Goals allowed12/121.67 goals/match

2 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲2.45 xG/match

15.2 shots/matchShots12/12▲18.3 shots/match

5.67 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲6.33 shots/match

51.1%Possession12/12●63.3%

4.83 corners/matchCorners12/12●7 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls12/1210.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.08 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples24 / 24home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 1 Mar 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4