PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

SC Freiburg 2–2 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

SC Freiburg and FC Bayern München drew 2–2.

Shots
1720
Shots on target
68
Expected goals
1.521.81
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Freiburg and FC Bayern München drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (SC Freiburg – FC Bayern München): shots 17–20, shots on target 6–8, expected goals 1.52–1.81, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match2.71 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SC Freiburg have a visible home split

strong

SC Freiburg's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match12 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsSC Freiburg · FC Bayern München19.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC FreiburgFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots12 shots/match19.7 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against14.5 shots/match9.63 shots/match14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots20 shotsSC Freiburg 17 shots, FC Bayern München 20 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots8 shotsSC Freiburg 6 shots, FC Bayern München 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.52 xG1.81 xGSC Freiburg 1.52 xG, FC Bayern München 1.81 xG
  • Possession38%62%SC Freiburg 38%, FC Bayern München 62%
  • Corners3 corners6 cornersSC Freiburg 3 corners, FC Bayern München 6 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls7 foulsSC Freiburg 11 fouls, FC Bayern München 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kiliann Sildillia · SC Freiburg · 17′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg · 58′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 27′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 35′ · 0.02 xG · goalThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMichael Gregoritsch · SC Freiburg · 81′ · 0.02 xG · on targetChristian Günter · SC Freiburg · 12′ · 0.03 xG · goalRoland Sallai · SC Freiburg · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRoland Sallai · SC Freiburg · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 1′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 39′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMaximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 34′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 64′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRoland Sallai · SC Freiburg · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEric Dier · FC Bayern München · 70′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Eggestein · SC Freiburg · 83′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLucas Höler · SC Freiburg · 87′ · 0.05 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 18′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 43′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEric Dier · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAleksandar Pavlović · FC Bayern München · 80′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 75′ · 0.07 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 72′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 30′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 89′ · 0.09 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 47′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 63′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedVincenzo Grifo · SC Freiburg · 22′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedChristian Günter · SC Freiburg · 16′ · 0.30 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 71′ · 0.34 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 44′ · 0.41 xG · on targetRoland Sallai · SC Freiburg · 12′ · 0.42 xG · on targetRoland Sallai · SC Freiburg · 12′ · 0.50 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Freiburg: 17 shots, 6 on target, 1.75 xG. FC Bayern München: 20 shots, 7 on target, 1.84 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Christian Günter · SC Freiburg · 12′Lucas Höler · SC Freiburg · 87′Mathys Tel · FC Bayern München · 35′Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 75′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Freiburg 1.75 xG · FC Bayern München 1.84 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0SC Freiburg
0Draws
5FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga3–0
SC Freiburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–1
FC Bayern München — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga5–0
SC Freiburg — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–4
FC Bayern München — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SC Freiburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SC Freiburg24 matchesFC Bayern München24 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲ 2.71 goals/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲ 1.17 goals/match
1.53 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲ 2.62 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots24/24▲ 19.7 shots/match
4.54 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲ 7.54 shots/match
46.3%Possession24/24● 61.8%
3.96 corners/matchCorners24/24● 7.54 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls24/249.71 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 1 Mar 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSC FreiburgFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headSC Freiburg — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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