PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FC Köln 1–5 RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

1–5Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RB Leipzig won 1–5.

Shots
1022
Shots on target
28
Expected goals
1.283.36
Possession
33%67%

Full time

What the match recorded

RB Leipzig beat 1. FC Köln 5–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Köln – RB Leipzig): shots 10–22, shots on target 2–8, expected goals 1.28–3.36, possession 33%–67%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.77 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.77 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Köln have a visible home split

moderate

1. FC Köln's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match11.9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match ▲Shots1. FC Köln · RB Leipzig16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC KölnRB LeipzigBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match16.2 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against15.2 shots/match11.4 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots22 shots1. FC Köln 10 shots, RB Leipzig 22 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots8 shots1. FC Köln 2 shots, RB Leipzig 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.28 xG3.36 xG1. FC Köln 1.28 xG, RB Leipzig 3.36 xG
  • Possession33%67%1. FC Köln 33%, RB Leipzig 67%
  • Corners3 corners6 corners1. FC Köln 3 corners, RB Leipzig 6 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls13 fouls1. FC Köln 11 fouls, RB Leipzig 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Xaver Schlager · RB Leipzig · 5′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLeart Paqarada · 1. FC Köln · 60′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMax Finkgrafe · 1. FC Köln · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAmadou Haidara · RB Leipzig · 70′ · 0.03 xG · goalDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 31′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSteffen Tigges · 1. FC Köln · 86′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 67′ · 0.05 xG · goalDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 77′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 3′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 70′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFaride Alidou · 1. FC Köln · 3′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 12′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 77′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 54′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 85′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMax Finkgrafe · 1. FC Köln · 14′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedEric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 18′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 41′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 56′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJeff Chabot · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedCastello Lukeba · RB Leipzig · 56′ · 0.15 xG · on targetBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 31′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 82′ · 0.29 xG · goalXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 15′ · 0.38 xG · goalLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.40 xG · on targetSargis Adamyan · 1. FC Köln · 18′ · 0.65 xG · goalLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 63′ · 0.92 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.31 xG. RB Leipzig: 22 shots, 8 on target, 3.34 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Sargis Adamyan · 1. FC Köln · 18′Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 15′Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 63′Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 67′Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig · 70′Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 82′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 1.31 xG · RB Leipzig 3.34 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FC Köln
3Draws
2RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga6–0
1. FC Köln — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga0–0
RB Leipzig — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga2–2
RB Leipzig — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga3–1
1. FC Köln — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Köln favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Köln26 matchesRB Leipzig26 matches
0.77 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 2.31 goals/match
1.81 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 1.23 goals/match
1.03 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲ 2.01 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots26/26▲ 16.2 shots/match
4.08 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲ 6.77 shots/match
44.5%Possession26/26● 56.8%
5.12 corners/matchCorners26/26● 6 corners/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls26/2610.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 15 Mar 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC KölnRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-head1. FC Köln — RB Leipzig
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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