PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023Fri, 15 Mar 2024, 19:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–5Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric1. FC KölnRB Leipzig
Shots10 shots/match22 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match8 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.28 xG/match3.36 xG/match▲
Possession33%67%●
Corners3 corners/match6 corners/match●
Fouls11 fouls/match13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Xaver Schlager · RB Leipzig · 5′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLeart Paqarada · 1. FC Köln · 60′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMax Finkgrafe · 1. FC Köln · 58′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 76′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 36′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAmadou Haidara · RB Leipzig · 70′ · 0.03 xG · goalDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 31′ · 0.04 xG · on targetSteffen Tigges · 1. FC Köln · 86′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 67′ · 0.05 xG · goalDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 77′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 3′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 70′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFaride Alidou · 1. FC Köln · 3′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 12′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 77′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 54′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 85′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMax Finkgrafe · 1. FC Köln · 14′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedEric Martel · 1. FC Köln · 18′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 41′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 56′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJeff Chabot · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedCastello Lukeba · RB Leipzig · 56′ · 0.15 xG · on targetBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 31′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 82′ · 0.29 xG · goalXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 15′ · 0.38 xG · goalLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.40 xG · on targetSargis Adamyan · 1. FC Köln · 18′ · 0.65 xG · goalLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 63′ · 0.92 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.31 xG. RB Leipzig: 22 shots, 8 on target, 3.34 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Sargis Adamyan · 1. FC Köln · 18′Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 15′Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 63′Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 67′Amadou Haidara · RB Leipzig · 70′Yussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 82′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 1.31 xG · RB Leipzig 3.34 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: 1. FC Köln's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.77 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match0.77 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Köln have a visible home split

moderate

1. FC Köln's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match11.9 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match▲Shots1. FC Köln · RB Leipzig16.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC KölnRB LeipzigBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match16.2 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against15.2 shots/match11.4 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

01. FC Köln
3Draws
2RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga6–0
1. FC Köln — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga0–0
RB Leipzig — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga2–2
RB Leipzig — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga3–1
1. FC Köln — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

1. FC Köln favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 11 · 2 too close

0.77 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 26/26▲2.31 goals/match
1.81 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 26/26▲1.23 goals/match
1.03 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 26/26▲2.01 xG/match
2.08 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 26/26▲1.17 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShotsseason · 26/26▲16.2 shots/match
15.2 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/26▲11.4 shots/match
4.08 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 26/26▲6.77 shots/match
5.19 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 26/26▲3.38 shots/match
44.5%Possessionseason · 26/26●56.8%
5.12 corners/matchCornersseason · 26/26●6 corners/match
6.12 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/26▲3.88 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2610.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
12%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/26▲31%
58%Scoring frequencyseason · 26/26▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Köln19.4
RB Leipzig75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Köln19.5
RB Leipzig86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Köln32.4
RB Leipzig86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Köln41.7
RB Leipzig75
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln58.3
RB Leipzig30.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Köln63.9
RB Leipzig86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Köln44.5
RB Leipzig72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

1. FC Köln26 matchesRB Leipzig26 matches
0.77 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲2.31 goals/match
1.81 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲1.23 goals/match
1.03 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲2.01 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots26/26▲16.2 shots/match
4.08 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲6.77 shots/match
44.5%Possession26/26●56.8%
5.12 corners/matchCorners26/26●6 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.8 fouls/matchFouls26/2610.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

1. FC Köln13 matchesRB Leipzig13 matches
0.77 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲2.15 goals/match
1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed13/131.69 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲1.64 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots13/1314 shots/match
4.31 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲6 shots/match
45.5%Possession13/13●55.5%
6.69 corners/match●Corners13/135.23 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.21 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 15 Mar 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4
Teams1. FC KölnRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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