Bundesliga · 2023Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

FC Bayern München

LWDWW

0–2Full-time recap

Borussia Dortmund

DLWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC Bayern München	Borussia Dortmund
Shots	17 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	2 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.53 xG/match▲	0.88 xG/match
Possession	61%●	39%
Corners	7 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

FC Bayern München: 17 shots, 1 on target, 1.54 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 11 shots, 5 on target, 0.86 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 1.54 xG · Borussia Dortmund 0.86 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Borussia Dortmund's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

20 shots/match▲ShotsFC Bayern München · Borussia Dortmund15.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	FC Bayern München	Borussia Dortmund	Baseline
Shots	20 shots/match	15.3 shots/match	12.8 shots/match
Shots against	9.74 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible away split

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.5 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season15.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	12.5 shots/match	15.3 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

weak

FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.89 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	3.4 goals/match	2.89 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4FC Bayern München

1Draws

0Borussia Dortmund

4 Nov 2023Borussia Dortmund — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga0–4

1 Apr 2023FC Bayern München — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga4–2

8 Oct 2022Borussia Dortmund — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–2

23 Apr 2022FC Bayern München — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga3–1

4 Dec 2021Borussia Dortmund — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

FC Bayern München favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 0 · 5 too close

2.89 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/272.04 goals/match

1.22 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/271.19 goals/match

2.76 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 27/271.91 xG/match

0.9 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 27/271.55 xG/match

20 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/2715.3 shots/match

9.74 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2713.8 shots/match

7.44 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/275.63 shots/match

3.3 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/274.48 shots/match

62.1%●Possessionseason · 27/2758%

7.52 corners/match●Cornersseason · 27/275.15 corners/match

2.67 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/275.19 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.41 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/279.44 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

33%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2733%

89%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2793%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Bayern München91.7

Borussia Dortmund80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Bayern München97.2

Borussia Dortmund75

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Bayern München88

Borussia Dortmund70.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Bayern München97.2

Borussia Dortmund36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München8.3

Borussia Dortmund13.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München97.2

Borussia Dortmund63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Bayern München75

Borussia Dortmund57

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

FC Bayern München27 matchesBorussia Dortmund27 matches

2.89 goals/match▲Goals scored27/272.04 goals/match

1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed27/271.19 goals/match

2.76 xG/match▲Expected goals27/271.91 xG/match

20 shots/match▲Shots27/2715.3 shots/match

7.44 shots/match▲Shots on target27/275.63 shots/match

62.1%●Possession27/2758%

7.52 corners/match●Corners27/275.15 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.41 fouls/matchFouls27/279.44 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

FC Bayern München14 matchesBorussia Dortmund14 matches

3.36 goals/match▲Goals scored14/142 goals/match

0.79 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/140.93 goals/match

2.97 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.72 xG/match

21.1 shots/match▲Shots14/1412.5 shots/match

8.5 shots/match▲Shots on target14/145.14 shots/match

60.1%●Possession14/1454.4%

7.86 corners/match●Corners14/144.29 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9 fouls/matchFouls14/149.71 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples27 / 27home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4