PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FC Heidenheim 1–2 RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RB Leipzig won 1–2.

Shots
1012
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
1.031.84
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

RB Leipzig beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Heidenheim – RB Leipzig): shots 10–12, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 1.03–1.84, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.43 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.43 goals/match1.48 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Heidenheim have a visible home split

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.7 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.7 shots/match11.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

1. FC Heidenheim show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match ▲Shots1. FC Heidenheim · RB Leipzig16.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC HeidenheimRB LeipzigBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match16.1 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against15.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots12 shots1. FC Heidenheim 10 shots, RB Leipzig 12 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shots1. FC Heidenheim 4 shots, RB Leipzig 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.03 xG1.84 xG1. FC Heidenheim 1.03 xG, RB Leipzig 1.84 xG
  • Possession39%61%1. FC Heidenheim 39%, RB Leipzig 61%
  • Corners2 corners6 corners1. FC Heidenheim 2 corners, RB Leipzig 6 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls8 fouls1. FC Heidenheim 13 fouls, RB Leipzig 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 5′ · 0.01 xG · on targetKevin Sessa · 1. FC Heidenheim · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 3′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJan-Niklas Beste · 1. FC Heidenheim · 34′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWilli Orbán · RB Leipzig · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 34′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 42′ · 0.06 xG · goalNikola Dovedan · 1. FC Heidenheim · 77′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 77′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKevin Sessa · 1. FC Heidenheim · 43′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 6′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 29′ · 0.10 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 72′ · 0.12 xG · on targetNikola Dovedan · 1. FC Heidenheim · 69′ · 0.13 xG · goalTim Kleindienst · 1. FC Heidenheim · 77′ · 0.14 xG · on targetXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 38′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 67′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedKevin Sessa · 1. FC Heidenheim · 11′ · 0.32 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 85′ · 0.98 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Heidenheim: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.05 xG. RB Leipzig: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.88 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Nikola Dovedan · 1. FC Heidenheim · 69′Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 42′Loïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 85′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.05 xG · RB Leipzig 1.88 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FC Heidenheim
0Draws
1RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga2–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Heidenheim favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Heidenheim30 matchesRB Leipzig30 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲ 2.3 goals/match
1.73 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲ 1.13 goals/match
1.19 xG/matchExpected goals30/30▲ 2.01 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots30/30▲ 16.1 shots/match
3.27 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲ 6.73 shots/match
41.2%Possession30/30● 56.9%
5.33 corners/matchCorners30/30● 6.13 corners/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls30/3010.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC HeidenheimRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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