Bundesliga · 2023Sat, 18 May 2024, 13:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

1. FC Heidenheim

DLWDD

4–1Full-time recap

1. FC Köln

LLDDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	1. FC Heidenheim	1. FC Köln
Shots	16 shots/match	22 shots/match▲
Shots on target	8 shots/match	9 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.01 xG/match	2.29 xG/match▲
Possession	48%	52%●
Corners	5 corners/match	12 corners/match●
Fouls	9 fouls/match	20 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

1. FC Heidenheim: 16 shots, 8 on target, 1.02 xG. 1. FC Köln: 22 shots, 9 on target, 3.15 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.02 xG · 1. FC Köln 3.15 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: 1. FC Köln's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: 1. FC Heidenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five shots average is above their season average.

19 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	19 shots/match	13.1 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Heidenheim have a visible home split

moderate

1. FC Heidenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.9 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.9 shots/match	11.6 shots/match	13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.38 corners/matchCorners1. FC Heidenheim · 1. FC Köln●5.53 corners/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric	1. FC Heidenheim	1. FC Köln	Baseline
Corners	5.38 corners/match	5.53 corners/match	4.87 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

01. FC Heidenheim

1Draws

01. FC Köln

13 Jan 20241. FC Köln — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga1–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

1. FC Heidenheim favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · 1. FC Köln in 2 · 6 too close

1.47 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 34/340.82 goals/match

1.62 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 34/341.76 goals/match

1.17 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 34/341.18 xG/match

1.85 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 34/341.94 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 34/34▲13.1 shots/match

15.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 34/3414.9 shots/match

3.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 34/34▲4.44 shots/match

5.24 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 34/345.09 shots/match

42%Possessionseason · 34/34●46.4%

5.38 corners/matchCornersseason · 34/34●5.53 corners/match

5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 34/345.97 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3412.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/3412%

85%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 34/3459%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

1. FC Heidenheim2.8

1. FC Köln36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

1. FC Heidenheim20.4

1. FC Köln33.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

1. FC Heidenheim38

1. FC Köln35.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

1. FC Heidenheim47.2

1. FC Köln63.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim80.6

1. FC Köln69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

1. FC Heidenheim75

1. FC Köln80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

1. FC Heidenheim41.7

1. FC Köln61.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

1. FC Heidenheim34 matches1. FC Köln34 matches

1.47 goals/match▲Goals scored34/340.82 goals/match

1.62 goals/match▲Goals allowed34/341.76 goals/match

1.17 xG/matchExpected goals34/341.18 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShots34/34▲13.1 shots/match

3.5 shots/matchShots on target34/34▲4.44 shots/match

42%Possession34/34●46.4%

5.38 corners/matchCorners34/34●5.53 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13 fouls/matchFouls34/3412.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

1. FC Heidenheim17 matches1. FC Köln17 matches

1.76 goals/match▲Goals scored17/170.76 goals/match

1.53 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.88 goals/match

1.28 xG/match▲Expected goals17/171.14 xG/match

13.9 shots/match▲Shots17/1711.1 shots/match

4.24 shots/matchShots on target17/174.24 shots/match

44.7%●Possession17/1744.2%

6.24 corners/match●Corners17/174.41 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.2 fouls/matchFouls17/1712.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples34 / 34home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 May 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

1. FC Heidenheim have a visible home split

Both teams have elevated corners records

Head-to-head

Team comparison

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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