PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FC Köln 3–2 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Köln won 3–2.

Shots
1813
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
3.211.64
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Köln beat 1. FC Union Berlin 3–2. Recorded in this match (1. FC Köln – 1. FC Union Berlin): shots 18–13, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 3.21–1.64, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Köln's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Köln's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Köln have a visible home split

moderate

1. FC Köln's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.2 shots/match12.9 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots13 shots1. FC Köln 18 shots, 1. FC Union Berlin 13 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shots1. FC Köln 5 shots, 1. FC Union Berlin 6 shots
  • Expected goals3.21 xG1.64 xG1. FC Köln 3.21 xG, 1. FC Union Berlin 1.64 xG
  • Possession62%38%1. FC Köln 62%, 1. FC Union Berlin 38%
  • Corners6 corners8 corners1. FC Köln 6 corners, 1. FC Union Berlin 8 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls16 fouls1. FC Köln 15 fouls, 1. FC Union Berlin 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Luca Waldschmidt · 1. FC Köln · 6′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJérôme Roussillon · 1. FC Union Berlin · 37′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDenis Huseinbašić · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTimo Hübers · 1. FC Köln · 66′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMark Uth · 1. FC Köln · 81′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFaride Alidou · 1. FC Köln · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFaride Alidou · 1. FC Köln · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDenis Huseinbašić · 1. FC Köln · 66′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRobin Gosens · 1. FC Union Berlin · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJosip Juranović · 1. FC Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLinton Maina · 1. FC Köln · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRobin Gosens · 1. FC Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJérôme Roussillon · 1. FC Union Berlin · 57′ · 0.04 xG · on targetChristopher Trimmel · 1. FC Union Berlin · 60′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRobin Knoche · 1. FC Union Berlin · 15′ · 0.05 xG · goalRobin Knoche · 1. FC Union Berlin · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMark Uth · 1. FC Köln · 87′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMax Finkgrafe · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetBenno Schmitz · 1. FC Köln · 3′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFaride Alidou · 1. FC Köln · 35′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSteffen Tigges · 1. FC Köln · 50′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedSteffen Tigges · 1. FC Köln · 80′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBenedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin · 83′ · 0.15 xG · on targetKevin Volland · 1. FC Union Berlin · 33′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAndrás Schäfer · 1. FC Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.23 xG · on targetSteffen Tigges · 1. FC Köln · 87′ · 0.46 xG · goalFaride Alidou · 1. FC Köln · 50′ · 0.55 xG · off target or blockedDamion Downs · 1. FC Köln · 90′ · 0.72 xG · goalKevin Volland · 1. FC Union Berlin · 19′ · 0.82 xG · goalFlorian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Köln: 18 shots, 5 on target, 3.20 xG. 1. FC Union Berlin: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Florian Kainz · 1. FC Köln · 45′Steffen Tigges · 1. FC Köln · 87′Damion Downs · 1. FC Köln · 90′Robin Knoche · 1. FC Union Berlin · 15′Kevin Volland · 1. FC Union Berlin · 19′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Köln 3.20 xG · 1. FC Union Berlin 1.65 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FC Köln
2Draws
31. FC Union Berlin
1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga2–0
1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga0–0
1. FC Köln — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga0–1
1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga1–0
1. FC Köln — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Köln favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Union Berlin in 4 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Köln33 matches1. FC Union Berlin33 matches
0.82 goals/matchGoals scored33/33▲ 0.94 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed33/331.73 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goals33/331.16 xG/match
12.9 shots/match ▲Shots33/3312 shots/match
4.3 shots/match ▲Shots on target33/333.97 shots/match
46.2% ●Possession33/3342.8%
5.33 corners/match ●Corners33/334.67 corners/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls33/3311.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples33 / 33home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 May 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Köln1. FC Union Berlin
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-head1. FC Köln — 1. FC Union Berlin
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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