PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

Borussia Dortmund 2–1 FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Borussia Dortmund won 2–1.

Shots
2010
Shots on target
73
Expected goals
2.950.63
Possession
75%25%

Full time

What the match recorded

Borussia Dortmund beat FC St. Pauli 2–1. Recorded in this match (Borussia Dortmund – FC St. Pauli): shots 20–10, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 2.95–0.63, possession 75%–25%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.71 goals/match1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible home split

weak

Borussia Dortmund's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

19 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots19 shots/match14.3 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Borussia Dortmund have recorded the higher season possession share.

62.9% ●PossessionBorussia Dortmund · FC St. Pauli45.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 17.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundFC St. PauliBaseline
Possession62.9%45.1%47%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots10 shotsBorussia Dortmund 20 shots, FC St. Pauli 10 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots3 shotsBorussia Dortmund 7 shots, FC St. Pauli 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.95 xG0.63 xGBorussia Dortmund 2.95 xG, FC St. Pauli 0.63 xG
  • Possession75%25%Borussia Dortmund 75%, FC St. Pauli 25%
  • Corners7 corners1 cornerBorussia Dortmund 7 corners, FC St. Pauli 1 corner
  • Fouls8 fouls7 foulsBorussia Dortmund 8 fouls, FC St. Pauli 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Waldemar Anton · Borussia Dortmund · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRobert Wagner · FC St. Pauli · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWaldemar Anton · Borussia Dortmund · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli · 76′ · 0.02 xG · on targetScott Banks · FC St. Pauli · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedOladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli · 1′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJulian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund · 22′ · 0.03 xG · on targetPascal Groß · Borussia Dortmund · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRamy Bensebaini · Borussia Dortmund · 43′ · 0.03 xG · goalEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 78′ · 0.03 xG · goalJulian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFelix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 28′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 58′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRamy Bensebaini · Borussia Dortmund · 39′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRobert Wagner · FC St. Pauli · 48′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 15′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 39′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 87′ · 0.11 xG · on targetOladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli · 16′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 64′ · 0.17 xG · on targetAdam Dźwigała · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 83′ · 0.24 xG · goalJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 64′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 6′ · 0.37 xG · on targetDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 64′ · 0.79 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Borussia Dortmund: 20 shots, 7 on target, 2.93 xG. FC St. Pauli: 10 shots, 3 on target, 0.64 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Ramy Bensebaini · Borussia Dortmund · 43′Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 83′Eric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 78′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Borussia Dortmund 2.93 xG · FC St. Pauli 0.64 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Borussia Dortmund favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 1 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Borussia Dortmund7 matchesFC St. Pauli7 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲ 1.57 goals/match
1.81 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/70.92 xG/match
14.3 shots/match ▲Shots7/712.3 shots/match
5.29 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/73.14 shots/match
62.9% ●Possession7/745.1%
6.57 corners/match ●Corners7/73.29 corners/match
11 fouls/matchFouls7/710.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 18 Oct 2024, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBorussia DortmundFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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