PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

1. FSV Mainz 05 0–2 RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

0–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RB Leipzig won 0–2.

Shots
1711
Shots on target
25
Expected goals
0.61.93
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

RB Leipzig beat 1. FSV Mainz 05 2–0. Recorded in this match (1. FSV Mainz 05 – RB Leipzig): shots 17–11, shots on target 2–5, expected goals 0.6–1.93, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05 have a visible home split

weak

1. FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match11.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.1 shots/match ▲Shots1. FSV Mainz 05 · RB Leipzig12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05RB LeipzigBaseline
Shots11.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against18.6 shots/match14.4 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

RB Leipzig have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.1%Possession1. FSV Mainz 05 · RB Leipzig● 56.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.7 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05RB LeipzigBaseline
Possession46.1%56.9%47.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots11 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 17 shots, RB Leipzig 11 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots5 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 2 shots, RB Leipzig 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.6 xG1.93 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 0.6 xG, RB Leipzig 1.93 xG
  • Possession53%47%1. FSV Mainz 05 53%, RB Leipzig 47%
  • Corners5 corners3 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 5 corners, RB Leipzig 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls15 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 12 fouls, RB Leipzig 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Armindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 22′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKaishu Sano · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 34′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArmindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 30′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 46′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaxim Leitsch · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Nusa · RB Leipzig · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 66′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArmindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 23′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 67′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 69′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWilli Orbán · RB Leipzig · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 32′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 37′ · 0.05 xG · on targetGabriel Vidović · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 35′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 39′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 16′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedArmindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 15′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 20′ · 0.22 xG · goalArthur Vermeeren · RB Leipzig · 68′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 70′ · 0.32 xG · on targetWilli Orbán · RB Leipzig · 37′ · 0.38 xG · goalBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 72′ · 0.48 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FSV Mainz 05: 17 shots, 2 on target, 0.61 xG. RB Leipzig: 11 shots, 5 on target, 1.93 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Xavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 20′Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig · 37′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.61 xG · RB Leipzig 1.93 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

21. FSV Mainz 05
2Draws
1RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga0–0
1. FSV Mainz 05 — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga2–0
RB Leipzig — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga0–3
1. FSV Mainz 05 — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga1–1
RB Leipzig — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga4–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 057 matchesRB Leipzig7 matches
1.57 goals/matchGoals scored7/71.57 goals/match
1.71 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲ 0.29 goals/match
1.13 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲ 1.56 xG/match
11.1 shots/matchShots7/7▲ 12.4 shots/match
3.71 shots/matchShots on target7/7▲ 4.14 shots/match
46.1%Possession7/7● 56.9%
5 corners/match ●Corners7/74.43 corners/match
12 fouls/matchFouls7/710 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05RB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — RB Leipzig
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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