PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

VfB Stuttgart 2–1 Holstein Kiel · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfB Stuttgart won 2–1.

Shots
169
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
1.630.51
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfB Stuttgart beat Holstein Kiel 2–1. Recorded in this match (VfB Stuttgart – Holstein Kiel): shots 16–9, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 1.63–0.51, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfB Stuttgart have a visible home split

weak

VfB Stuttgart's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

20.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots20.3 shots/match15.5 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15.5 shots/match ▲ShotsVfB Stuttgart · Holstein Kiel11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfB StuttgartHolstein KielBaseline
Shots15.5 shots/match11 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against11.5 shots/match18 shots/match13.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.8% ●PossessionVfB Stuttgart · Holstein Kiel43.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfB StuttgartHolstein KielBaseline
Possession58.8%43.4%46.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots16 shots9 shotsVfB Stuttgart 16 shots, Holstein Kiel 9 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsVfB Stuttgart 6 shots, Holstein Kiel 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.63 xG0.51 xGVfB Stuttgart 1.63 xG, Holstein Kiel 0.51 xG
  • Possession59%41%VfB Stuttgart 59%, Holstein Kiel 41%
  • Corners9 corners5 cornersVfB Stuttgart 9 corners, Holstein Kiel 5 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls17 foulsVfB Stuttgart 6 fouls, Holstein Kiel 17 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Marvin Schulz · Holstein Kiel · 58′ · 0.00 xG · on targetFabian Rieder · VfB Stuttgart · 12′ · 0.01 xG · on targetEl Bilal Touré · VfB Stuttgart · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 60′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAnrie Chase · VfB Stuttgart · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarko Ivezić · Holstein Kiel · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 61′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEl Bilal Touré · VfB Stuttgart · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Erras · Holstein Kiel · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEl Bilal Touré · VfB Stuttgart · 61′ · 0.04 xG · goalArmin Gigović · Holstein Kiel · 84′ · 0.04 xG · goalShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEl Bilal Touré · VfB Stuttgart · 17′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Erras · Holstein Kiel · 78′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 37′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBenedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel · 39′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 56′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 89′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 84′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAngelo Stiller · VfB Stuttgart · 43′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedNicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel · 64′ · 0.15 xG · on targetFabian Rieder · VfB Stuttgart · 38′ · 0.28 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 19′ · 0.68 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfB Stuttgart: 16 shots, 6 on target, 1.63 xG. Holstein Kiel: 9 shots, 3 on target, 0.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Deniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 19′El Bilal Touré · VfB Stuttgart · 61′Armin Gigović · Holstein Kiel · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfB Stuttgart 1.63 xG · Holstein Kiel 0.52 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfB Stuttgart favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Holstein Kiel in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfB Stuttgart8 matchesHolstein Kiel8 matches
2.13 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/81.25 goals/match
2 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/82.88 goals/match
1.98 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/81.22 xG/match
15.5 shots/match ▲Shots8/811 shots/match
5.88 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/84.13 shots/match
58.8% ●Possession8/843.4%
5.88 corners/match ●Corners8/84.13 corners/match
9.25 fouls/matchFouls8/812.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 26 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfB StuttgartHolstein Kiel
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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