PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

Borussia Dortmund 2–1 RB Leipzig · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Borussia Dortmund won 2–1.

Shots
207
Shots on target
73
Expected goals
2.210.48
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Borussia Dortmund beat RB Leipzig 2–1. Recorded in this match (Borussia Dortmund – RB Leipzig): shots 20–7, shots on target 7–3, expected goals 2.21–0.48, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

RB Leipzig's recent record differs from the season

moderate

RB Leipzig's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.67 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Borussia Dortmund have a visible home split

moderate

Borussia Dortmund's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

19.2 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots19.2 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

RB Leipzig show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RB Leipzig's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.6 shots/match ▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · RB Leipzig11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundRB LeipzigBaseline
Shots14.6 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against10.3 shots/match15.1 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots7 shotsBorussia Dortmund 20 shots, RB Leipzig 7 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots3 shotsBorussia Dortmund 7 shots, RB Leipzig 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.21 xG0.48 xGBorussia Dortmund 2.21 xG, RB Leipzig 0.48 xG
  • Possession56%44%Borussia Dortmund 56%, RB Leipzig 44%
  • Corners4 corners0 cornersBorussia Dortmund 4 corners, RB Leipzig 0 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsBorussia Dortmund 11 fouls, RB Leipzig 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Benjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 32′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFelix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 34′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEmre Can · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 61′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRamy Bensebaini · Borussia Dortmund · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 27′ · 0.04 xG · goalJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRamy Bensebaini · Borussia Dortmund · 36′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 24′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 65′ · 0.07 xG · goalNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 49′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 59′ · 0.08 xG · on targetEljif Elmas · RB Leipzig · 71′ · 0.09 xG · on targetSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 63′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 14′ · 0.13 xG · on targetMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 10′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 74′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 72′ · 0.19 xG · on targetJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 72′ · 0.20 xG · on targetEljif Elmas · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 30′ · 0.35 xG · goalJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 29′ · 0.44 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Borussia Dortmund: 20 shots, 7 on target, 2.28 xG. RB Leipzig: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.49 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Maximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 30′Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 65′Benjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 27′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Borussia Dortmund 2.28 xG · RB Leipzig 0.49 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Borussia Dortmund
0Draws
4RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga4–1
Borussia Dortmund — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga2–3
Borussia Dortmund — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga2–1
RB Leipzig — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga3–0
Borussia Dortmund — RB Leipzig · Bundesliga1–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Borussia Dortmund favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Borussia Dortmund9 matchesRB Leipzig9 matches
1.89 goals/match ▲Goals scored9/91.67 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲ 0.56 goals/match
1.76 xG/match ▲Expected goals9/91.47 xG/match
14.6 shots/match ▲Shots9/911.8 shots/match
5.33 shots/match ▲Shots on target9/94.56 shots/match
63.6% ●Possession9/953.9%
6.11 corners/match ●Corners9/93.78 corners/match
10.9 fouls/matchFouls9/910.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 2 Nov 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBorussia DortmundRB Leipzig
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headBorussia Dortmund — RB Leipzig
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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