Holstein Kiel
Bundesliga · 2024Holstein Kiel 0–3 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga
A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.
Match at a glance
1. FSV Mainz 05 won 0–3.
- Shots
- 7–18
- Shots on target
- 2–7
- Expected goals
- 0.43–2.32
- Possession
- 38%–62%
Full time
What the match recorded
1. FSV Mainz 05 beat Holstein Kiel 3–0. Recorded in this match (Holstein Kiel – 1. FSV Mainz 05): shots 7–18, shots on target 2–7, expected goals 0.43–2.32, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.
Pre-match record
What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.
Holstein Kiel's recent record differs from the season
moderateHolstein Kiel's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.
Window: last_5 versus season
| Metric | Last 5 | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 0.6 goals/match | 1.09 goals/match | 1.55 goals/match |
Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.
1. FSV Mainz 05 have a visible away split
moderate1. FSV Mainz 05's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.
Window: away
| Metric | Away only | Season | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shots | 10.2 shots/match | 12.8 shots/match | 12.7 shots/match |
Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.
Both teams have elevated fouls records
weakEach team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.
Evidence and caveat
Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.
Window: season
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | 1. FSV Mainz 05 | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 13.1 fouls/match | 12.4 fouls/match | 10.8 fouls/match |
Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.
This match
Match statistics
Every shot
Shot map
Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.
- off target
- on target
- goal
- penalty
- size = xG
Holstein Kiel: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.44 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 18 shots, 7 on target, 2.33 xG.
How the match built
Expected-goals timeline
Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.
The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Holstein Kiel 0.44 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.33 xG.
Metric comparison
Team comparison
Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.
Season: Holstein Kiel favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 10 · 1 too close
Window
Season
Window
Last 10
Window
Last 5
Window
Home–Away
Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.
Possession control
Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.
Attacking volume
Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.
Defensive resistance
Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.
Directness proxy
Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.
Physicality
Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.
Set-piece relevance
Corner volume relative to competition peers.
Tempo and pressure proxy
Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.
- Rest before fixture · Both teams: 15 days
- Matches in previous 14 days · Both teams: 0 matches
Holstein Kiel / 1. FSV Mainz 05
Evidence quality
How much supports this analysis
- The fixture is outside the configured active season.
- Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.
Known unknowns
- Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
- Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
- The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
More football
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Make a graphic from this match
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