PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

FC St. Pauli 3–1 Holstein Kiel · Bundesliga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC St. Pauli won 3–1.

Shots
1110
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.331.18
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC St. Pauli beat Holstein Kiel 3–1. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – Holstein Kiel): shots 11–10, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.33–1.18, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Holstein Kiel's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Holstein Kiel's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.08 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.08 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Holstein Kiel show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Holstein Kiel's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.3 shots/match ▲ShotsFC St. Pauli · Holstein Kiel10.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliHolstein KielBaseline
Shots11.3 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match17.2 shots/match14.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots10 shotsFC St. Pauli 11 shots, Holstein Kiel 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsFC St. Pauli 4 shots, Holstein Kiel 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.33 xG1.18 xGFC St. Pauli 1.33 xG, Holstein Kiel 1.18 xG
  • Possession48%52%FC St. Pauli 48%, Holstein Kiel 52%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersFC St. Pauli 4 corners, Holstein Kiel 4 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls11 foulsFC St. Pauli 10 fouls, Holstein Kiel 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel · 1′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 36′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 67′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTimo Becker · Holstein Kiel · 79′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedManolis Saliakas · FC St. Pauli · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCarlo Boukhalfa · FC St. Pauli · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 64′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArmin Gigović · Holstein Kiel · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetManolis Saliakas · FC St. Pauli · 10′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Erras · Holstein Kiel · 89′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFinn Porath · Holstein Kiel · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 90′ · 0.09 xG · goalManolis Saliakas · FC St. Pauli · 25′ · 0.10 xG · goalJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 28′ · 0.11 xG · on targetPatrick Erras · Holstein Kiel · 47′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 27′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 56′ · 0.29 xG · goalJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 85′ · 0.40 xG · goalFiete Arp · Holstein Kiel · 45′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC St. Pauli: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.32 xG. Holstein Kiel: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.27 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Manolis Saliakas · FC St. Pauli · 25′Morgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 56′Johannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 85′Phil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC St. Pauli 1.32 xG · Holstein Kiel 1.27 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3FC St. Pauli
1Draws
1Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel — FC St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga3–4
FC St. Pauli — Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga5–1
Holstein Kiel — FC St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga3–4
FC St. Pauli — Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga0–0
Holstein Kiel — FC St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Holstein Kiel in 4

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli12 matchesHolstein Kiel12 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲ 1.08 goals/match
1.25 goals/match ▲Goals allowed12/122.58 goals/match
0.9 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲ 1.09 xG/match
11.3 shots/match ▲Shots12/1210.7 shots/match
3.08 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲ 4.08 shots/match
43.8% ●Possession12/1243.4%
3.75 corners/matchCorners12/12● 3.92 corners/match
10.1 fouls/matchFouls12/1212.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 29 Nov 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. PauliHolstein Kiel
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headFC St. Pauli — Holstein Kiel
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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