PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

1. FC Union Berlin 1–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 1–2.

Shots
88
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
0.710.94
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat 1. FC Union Berlin 2–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Union Berlin – Bayer 04 Leverkusen): shots 8–8, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.71–0.94, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.83 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have a visible away split

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

13.5 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season18 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match18 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.3%Possession1. FC Union Berlin · Bayer 04 Leverkusen● 61.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.3 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Union BerlinBayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Possession40.3%61.7%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots8 shots1. FC Union Berlin 8 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shots1. FC Union Berlin 2 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.71 xG0.94 xG1. FC Union Berlin 0.71 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.94 xG
  • Possession38%62%1. FC Union Berlin 38%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 62%
  • Corners1 corner3 corners1. FC Union Berlin 1 corner, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 corners
  • Fouls18 fouls11 fouls1. FC Union Berlin 18 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Tim Skarke · 1. FC Union Berlin · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBenedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWoo-Yeong Jeong · 1. FC Union Berlin · 27′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBenedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 49′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 81′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDanilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 82′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTim Skarke · 1. FC Union Berlin · 56′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 5′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 10′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 71′ · 0.20 xG · goalWoo-Yeong Jeong · 1. FC Union Berlin · 29′ · 0.38 xG · goalJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 2′ · 0.44 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Union Berlin: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.70 xG. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.92 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Woo-Yeong Jeong · 1. FC Union Berlin · 29′Jeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 2′Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 71′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Union Berlin 0.70 xG · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.92 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FC Union Berlin
2Draws
3Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1. FC Union Berlin — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga0–1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga4–0
1. FC Union Berlin — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga0–0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga5–0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Union Berlin favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Union Berlin12 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen12 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored12/12▲ 2.33 goals/match
0.92 goals/match ▲Goals allowed12/121.58 goals/match
0.89 xG/matchExpected goals12/12▲ 2.05 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots12/12▲ 18 shots/match
3.58 shots/matchShots on target12/12▲ 6.58 shots/match
40.3%Possession12/12● 61.7%
4.33 corners/matchCorners12/12● 7.42 corners/match
13.8 fouls/matchFouls12/129.25 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Nov 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Union BerlinBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-head1. FC Union Berlin — Bayer 04 Leverkusen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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