PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

VfB Stuttgart 3–2 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfB Stuttgart won 3–2.

Shots
714
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
2.111.39
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfB Stuttgart beat 1. FC Union Berlin 3–2. Recorded in this match (VfB Stuttgart – 1. FC Union Berlin): shots 7–14, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 2.11–1.39, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.92 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfB Stuttgart have a visible home split

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.9 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.9 shots/match14 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.2% ●PossessionVfB Stuttgart · 1. FC Union Berlin40%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfB Stuttgart1. FC Union BerlinBaseline
Possession58.2%40%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots14 shotsVfB Stuttgart 7 shots, 1. FC Union Berlin 14 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsVfB Stuttgart 5 shots, 1. FC Union Berlin 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.11 xG1.39 xGVfB Stuttgart 2.11 xG, 1. FC Union Berlin 1.39 xG
  • Possession64%36%VfB Stuttgart 64%, 1. FC Union Berlin 36%
  • Corners1 corner6 cornersVfB Stuttgart 1 corner, 1. FC Union Berlin 6 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls19 foulsVfB Stuttgart 14 fouls, 1. FC Union Berlin 19 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Robert Skov · 1. FC Union Berlin · 48′ · 0.01 xG · goalBenedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTim Skarke · 1. FC Union Berlin · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAndrás Schäfer · 1. FC Union Berlin · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeopold Querfeld · 1. FC Union Berlin · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTim Skarke · 1. FC Union Berlin · 40′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 64′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAndrás Schäfer · 1. FC Union Berlin · 73′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 61′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJordan Siebatcheu · 1. FC Union Berlin · 84′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLeopold Querfeld · 1. FC Union Berlin · 54′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJordan Siebatcheu · 1. FC Union Berlin · 71′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedLeopold Querfeld · 1. FC Union Berlin · 9′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedTim Skarke · 1. FC Union Berlin · 65′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 22′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedRani Khedira · 1. FC Union Berlin · 40′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 37′ · 0.30 xG · goalNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 59′ · 0.46 xG · goalAtakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart · 69′ · 0.51 xG · goalNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 51′ · 0.70 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfB Stuttgart: 7 shots, 5 on target, 2.02 xG. 1. FC Union Berlin: 14 shots, 3 on target, 1.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Nick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 51′Nick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 59′Atakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart · 69′Danilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 37′Robert Skov · 1. FC Union Berlin · 48′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfB Stuttgart 2.02 xG · 1. FC Union Berlin 1.40 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2VfB Stuttgart
1Draws
21. FC Union Berlin
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga2–0
1. FC Union Berlin — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga0–3
1. FC Union Berlin — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga3–0
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga0–1
1. FC Union Berlin — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfB Stuttgart favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Union Berlin in 6

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfB Stuttgart13 matches1. FC Union Berlin13 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/130.92 goals/match
1.77 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲ 1.08 goals/match
1.86 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/130.93 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots13/1311.6 shots/match
5.62 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/133.54 shots/match
58.2% ●Possession13/1340%
5.15 corners/match ●Corners13/134.46 corners/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls13/1314.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 6 Dec 2024, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfB Stuttgart1. FC Union Berlin
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headVfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Union Berlin
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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