PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

1. FSV Mainz 05 2–0 TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 won 2–0.

Shots
1810
Shots on target
82
Expected goals
2.380.44
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FSV Mainz 05 beat TSG Hoffenheim 2–0. Recorded in this match (1. FSV Mainz 05 – TSG Hoffenheim): shots 18–10, shots on target 8–2, expected goals 2.38–0.44, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

TSG Hoffenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

TSG Hoffenheim's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.42 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.42 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

TSG Hoffenheim have a visible away split

moderate

TSG Hoffenheim's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.67 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.67 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots18 shots10 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 18 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 10 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots2 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 8 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.38 xG0.44 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 2.38 xG, TSG Hoffenheim 0.44 xG
  • Possession52%48%1. FSV Mainz 05 52%, TSG Hoffenheim 48%
  • Corners8 corners3 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 8 corners, TSG Hoffenheim 3 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls12 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 13 fouls, TSG Hoffenheim 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Tom Bischof · TSG Hoffenheim · 78′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDanny da Costa · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 24′ · 0.02 xG · goalAdam Hložek · TSG Hoffenheim · 66′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTom Bischof · TSG Hoffenheim · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnton Stach · TSG Hoffenheim · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJacob Bruun Larsen · TSG Hoffenheim · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTom Bischof · TSG Hoffenheim · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDavid Jurásek · TSG Hoffenheim · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedStanley Nsoki · TSG Hoffenheim · 86′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 44′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 74′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 82′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMergim Berisha · TSG Hoffenheim · 86′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedArmindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedArmindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 7′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPaul Nebel · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 27′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 48′ · 0.11 xG · on targetKaishu Sano · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 7′ · 0.12 xG · on targetPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 39′ · 0.13 xG · on targetJacob Bruun Larsen · TSG Hoffenheim · 18′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedArmindo Sieb · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 90′ · 0.16 xG · on targetDominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 3′ · 0.18 xG · on targetPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 39′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 4′ · 0.91 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FSV Mainz 05: 18 shots, 8 on target, 2.43 xG. TSG Hoffenheim: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.43 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 4′Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 24′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.43 xG · TSG Hoffenheim 0.43 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

31. FSV Mainz 05
1Draws
1TSG Hoffenheim
1. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga4–1
TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–0
TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga4–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · TSG Hoffenheim in 0 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 0512 matchesTSG Hoffenheim12 matches
1.67 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/121.42 goals/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed12/122 goals/match
1.41 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/121.23 xG/match
13.3 shots/match ▲Shots12/1212.3 shots/match
4.83 shots/matchShots on target12/124.75 shots/match
49.2%Possession12/12● 49.8%
5.25 corners/match ●Corners12/124.58 corners/match
12.4 fouls/matchFouls12/1211 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Dec 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05TSG Hoffenheim
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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