PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–1 FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 2–1.

Shots
612
Shots on target
24
Expected goals
0.881.82
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat FC St. Pauli 2–1. Recorded in this match (Bayer 04 Leverkusen – FC St. Pauli): shots 6–12, shots on target 2–4, expected goals 0.88–1.82, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.85 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match0.85 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

61.8% ●PossessionBayer 04 Leverkusen · FC St. Pauli43.3%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBayer 04 LeverkusenFC St. PauliBaseline
Possession61.8%43.3%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have a visible home split

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

20.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season17.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots20.1 shots/match17.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots6 shots12 shotsBayer 04 Leverkusen 6 shots, FC St. Pauli 12 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots4 shotsBayer 04 Leverkusen 2 shots, FC St. Pauli 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.88 xG1.82 xGBayer 04 Leverkusen 0.88 xG, FC St. Pauli 1.82 xG
  • Possession63%37%Bayer 04 Leverkusen 63%, FC St. Pauli 37%
  • Corners7 corners4 cornersBayer 04 Leverkusen 7 corners, FC St. Pauli 4 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls10 foulsBayer 04 Leverkusen 8 fouls, FC St. Pauli 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Oladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli · 29′ · 0.01 xG · on targetCarlo Boukhalfa · FC St. Pauli · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedManolis Saliakas · FC St. Pauli · 77′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAleix García · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGranit Xhaka · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 79′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 81′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 84′ · 0.07 xG · goalJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 89′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Albers · FC St. Pauli · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAleix García · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 90′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 21′ · 0.12 xG · goalFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 71′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 54′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 12′ · 0.37 xG · on targetFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 6′ · 0.38 xG · goalMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 59′ · 0.87 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.84 xG. FC St. Pauli: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.86 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Florian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 6′Jonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 21′Morgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.84 xG · FC St. Pauli 1.86 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bayer 04 Leverkusen favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bayer 04 Leverkusen13 matchesFC St. Pauli13 matches
2.31 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/130.85 goals/match
1.54 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲ 1.31 goals/match
1.96 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/130.97 xG/match
17.1 shots/match ▲Shots13/1311.4 shots/match
6.23 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/133.15 shots/match
61.8% ●Possession13/1343.3%
7.38 corners/match ●Corners13/133.77 corners/match
9.15 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Dec 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBayer 04 LeverkusenFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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