PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

FC Bayern München 4–2 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga

4–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 4–2.

Shots
212
Shots on target
102
Expected goals
2.421.29
Possession
83%17%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat 1. FC Heidenheim 4–2. Recorded in this match (FC Bayern München – 1. FC Heidenheim): shots 21–2, shots on target 10–2, expected goals 2.42–1.29, possession 83%–17%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Heidenheim show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

1. FC Heidenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

19.6 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Bayern München · 1. FC Heidenheim11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern München1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Shots19.6 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against5 shots/match14.2 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

72.5% ●PossessionFC Bayern München · 1. FC Heidenheim41.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 31.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern München1. FC HeidenheimBaseline
Possession72.5%41.2%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

weak

FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season3.15 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match3.15 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots2 shotsFC Bayern München 21 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 2 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots2 shotsFC Bayern München 10 shots, 1. FC Heidenheim 2 shots
  • Expected goals2.42 xG1.29 xGFC Bayern München 2.42 xG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.29 xG
  • Possession83%17%FC Bayern München 83%, 1. FC Heidenheim 17%
  • Corners8 corners0 cornersFC Bayern München 8 corners, 1. FC Heidenheim 0 corners
  • Fouls4 fouls5 foulsFC Bayern München 4 fouls, 1. FC Heidenheim 5 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 71′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 35′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 40′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAlphonso Davies · FC Bayern München · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München · 50′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 84′ · 0.05 xG · goalThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 39′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 56′ · 0.06 xG · goalJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 74′ · 0.06 xG · on targetLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAleksandar Pavlović · FC Bayern München · 50′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 12′ · 0.09 xG · on targetLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 14′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München · 18′ · 0.11 xG · goalLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 15′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAlphonso Davies · FC Bayern München · 39′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 17′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 74′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedNiklas Dorsch · 1. FC Heidenheim · 85′ · 0.33 xG · goalJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.36 xG · goalMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 62′ · 0.44 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Bayern München: 21 shots, 10 on target, 2.44 xG. 1. FC Heidenheim: 1 shots, 1 on target, 0.33 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Dayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München · 18′Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 56′Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 84′Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 90′Niklas Dorsch · 1. FC Heidenheim · 85′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 2.44 xG · 1. FC Heidenheim 0.33 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1FC Bayern München
0Draws
11. FC Heidenheim
1. FC Heidenheim — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga3–2
FC Bayern München — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga4–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Bayern München favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FC Heidenheim in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Bayern München13 matches1. FC Heidenheim13 matches
3.15 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/131.31 goals/match
0.77 goals/match ▲Goals allowed13/132.15 goals/match
2.34 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/131.48 xG/match
19.6 shots/match ▲Shots13/1311.8 shots/match
8.31 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/133.85 shots/match
72.5% ●Possession13/1341.2%
6.85 corners/match ●Corners13/133.62 corners/match
8.15 fouls/matchFouls13/1311 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Dec 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Bayern München1. FC Heidenheim
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headFC Bayern München — 1. FC Heidenheim
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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