PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

VfB Stuttgart 0–1 FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC St. Pauli won 0–1.

Shots
2511
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
2.092.16
Possession
73%27%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC St. Pauli beat VfB Stuttgart 1–0. Recorded in this match (VfB Stuttgart – FC St. Pauli): shots 25–11, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 2.09–2.16, possession 73%–27%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfB Stuttgart have a visible home split

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season15 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.8 shots/match15 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

weak

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.8 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.8 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

59.7% ●PossessionVfB Stuttgart · FC St. Pauli43.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 16.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVfB StuttgartFC St. PauliBaseline
Possession59.7%43.1%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots25 shots11 shotsVfB Stuttgart 25 shots, FC St. Pauli 11 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsVfB Stuttgart 5 shots, FC St. Pauli 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.09 xG2.16 xGVfB Stuttgart 2.09 xG, FC St. Pauli 2.16 xG
  • Possession73%27%VfB Stuttgart 73%, FC St. Pauli 27%
  • Corners9 corners1 cornerVfB Stuttgart 9 corners, FC St. Pauli 1 corner
  • Fouls10 fouls11 foulsVfB Stuttgart 10 fouls, FC St. Pauli 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Lars Ritzka · FC St. Pauli · 64′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Rouault · VfB Stuttgart · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJosha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPascal Stenzel · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPascal Stenzel · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYannik Keitel · VfB Stuttgart · 34′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart · 26′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedCarlo Boukhalfa · FC St. Pauli · 49′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYannik Keitel · VfB Stuttgart · 61′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 66′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 11′ · 0.06 xG · on targetEnzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart · 18′ · 0.07 xG · on targetNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 73′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 41′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedFabian Rieder · VfB Stuttgart · 83′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 51′ · 0.12 xG · on targetNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 37′ · 0.13 xG · on targetJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 21′ · 0.14 xG · goalNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 47′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedJackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli · 54′ · 0.21 xG · on targetErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart · 69′ · 0.26 xG · on targetYannik Keitel · VfB Stuttgart · 20′ · 0.27 xG · on targetOladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli · 80′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedOladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli · 82′ · 0.59 xG · on targetJohannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 53′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfB Stuttgart: 25 shots, 5 on target, 2.08 xG. FC St. Pauli: 11 shots, 5 on target, 2.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Johannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli · 21′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfB Stuttgart 2.08 xG · FC St. Pauli 2.36 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfB Stuttgart favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · FC St. Pauli in 3 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfB Stuttgart15 matchesFC St. Pauli15 matches
1.93 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/150.8 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲ 1.27 goals/match
1.91 xG/match ▲Expected goals15/151.03 xG/match
15 shots/match ▲Shots15/1511.6 shots/match
5.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target15/153.33 shots/match
59.7% ●Possession15/1543.1%
5.47 corners/match ●Corners15/153.6 corners/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Dec 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfB StuttgartFC St. Pauli
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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