PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

1. FC Heidenheim 1–3 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfB Stuttgart won 1–3.

Shots
918
Shots on target
27
Expected goals
0.812.38
Possession
34%66%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfB Stuttgart beat 1. FC Heidenheim 3–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Heidenheim – VfB Stuttgart): shots 9–18, shots on target 2–7, expected goals 0.81–2.38, possession 34%–66%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfB Stuttgart have a visible away split

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.7 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season14.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.7 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

1. FC Heidenheim's recent record differs from the season

weak

1. FC Heidenheim's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8.8 shots/match11.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

VfB Stuttgart have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.7%Possession1. FC Heidenheim · VfB Stuttgart● 58.8%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 18.1 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC HeidenheimVfB StuttgartBaseline
Possession40.7%58.8%48.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots18 shots1. FC Heidenheim 9 shots, VfB Stuttgart 18 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots7 shots1. FC Heidenheim 2 shots, VfB Stuttgart 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.81 xG2.38 xG1. FC Heidenheim 0.81 xG, VfB Stuttgart 2.38 xG
  • Possession34%66%1. FC Heidenheim 34%, VfB Stuttgart 66%
  • Corners9 corners6 corners1. FC Heidenheim 9 corners, VfB Stuttgart 6 corners
  • Fouls25 fouls13 fouls1. FC Heidenheim 25 fouls, VfB Stuttgart 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Mathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 80′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedPaul Wanner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 41′ · 0.02 xG · goalJosha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarnon Busch · 1. FC Heidenheim · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAngelo Stiller · VfB Stuttgart · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFabian Rieder · VfB Stuttgart · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJosha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart · 13′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAdrian Beck · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedChris Führich · VfB Stuttgart · 33′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNiklas Dorsch · 1. FC Heidenheim · 5′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 76′ · 0.06 xG · on targetFabian Rieder · VfB Stuttgart · 76′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPaul Wanner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 11′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 58′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMaximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 20′ · 0.12 xG · goalEnzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.12 xG · goalMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 60′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedJustin Diehl · VfB Stuttgart · 90′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart · 52′ · 0.21 xG · on targetErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 65′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedJeff Chabot · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.26 xG · off target or blockedMathias Honsak · 1. FC Heidenheim · 79′ · 0.56 xG · on targetNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 85′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Heidenheim: 9 shots, 2 on target, 0.99 xG. VfB Stuttgart: 18 shots, 7 on target, 2.39 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Paul Wanner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 41′Maximilian Mittelstädt · VfB Stuttgart · 20′Enzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart · 45′Nick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 85′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Heidenheim 0.99 xG · VfB Stuttgart 2.39 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FC Heidenheim
1Draws
0VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga3–3
1. FC Heidenheim — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Heidenheim favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 9 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Heidenheim14 matchesVfB Stuttgart14 matches
1.29 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲ 2.07 goals/match
2.21 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲ 1.71 goals/match
1.44 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲ 1.9 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots14/14▲ 14.3 shots/match
3.71 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲ 5.71 shots/match
40.7%Possession14/14● 58.8%
4 corners/matchCorners14/14● 5.21 corners/match
12 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 14home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Dec 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC HeidenheimVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-head1. FC Heidenheim — VfB Stuttgart
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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