PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

TSG Hoffenheim 0–1 VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

VfL Wolfsburg won 0–1.

Shots
1512
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
0.980.75
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

VfL Wolfsburg beat TSG Hoffenheim 1–0. Recorded in this match (TSG Hoffenheim – VfL Wolfsburg): shots 15–12, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.98–0.75, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

TSG Hoffenheim's recent record differs from the season

moderate

TSG Hoffenheim's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.25 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.25 goals/match1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

TSG Hoffenheim have a visible home split

moderate

TSG Hoffenheim's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match13 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots12 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 15 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 12 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 2 shots, VfL Wolfsburg 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.98 xG0.75 xGTSG Hoffenheim 0.98 xG, VfL Wolfsburg 0.75 xG
  • Possession54%46%TSG Hoffenheim 54%, VfL Wolfsburg 46%
  • Corners4 corners8 cornersTSG Hoffenheim 4 corners, VfL Wolfsburg 8 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls14 foulsTSG Hoffenheim 15 fouls, VfL Wolfsburg 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Arthur Chaves · TSG Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKonstantinos Koulierakis · VfL Wolfsburg · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 74′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAnton Stach · TSG Hoffenheim · 74′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDenis Vavro · VfL Wolfsburg · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Prass · TSG Hoffenheim · 86′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArthur Chaves · TSG Hoffenheim · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedValentin Gendrey · TSG Hoffenheim · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGift Orban · TSG Hoffenheim · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdam Hložek · TSG Hoffenheim · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDenis Vavro · VfL Wolfsburg · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedErencan Yardımcı · TSG Hoffenheim · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMaximilian Arnold · VfL Wolfsburg · 35′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDenis Vavro · VfL Wolfsburg · 53′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Wimmer · VfL Wolfsburg · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGift Orban · TSG Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAdam Hložek · TSG Hoffenheim · 84′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 22′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTom Bischof · TSG Hoffenheim · 47′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 29′ · 0.08 xG · on targetTiago Tomás · VfL Wolfsburg · 39′ · 0.08 xG · on targetErencan Yardımcı · TSG Hoffenheim · 79′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 29′ · 0.10 xG · goalTom Bischof · TSG Hoffenheim · 47′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJonas Wind · VfL Wolfsburg · 76′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Prass · TSG Hoffenheim · 79′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

TSG Hoffenheim: 15 shots, 2 on target, 0.99 xG. VfL Wolfsburg: 12 shots, 3 on target, 0.77 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Mohamed Amoura · VfL Wolfsburg · 29′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: TSG Hoffenheim 0.99 xG · VfL Wolfsburg 0.77 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2TSG Hoffenheim
1Draws
2VfL Wolfsburg
VfL Wolfsburg — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–2
TSG Hoffenheim — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga3–1
VfL Wolfsburg — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–1
TSG Hoffenheim — VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga1–2
VfL Wolfsburg — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: TSG Hoffenheim favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · VfL Wolfsburg in 5 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

TSG Hoffenheim16 matchesVfL Wolfsburg16 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲ 2.06 goals/match
1.81 goals/matchGoals allowed16/161.75 goals/match
1.35 xG/matchExpected goals16/16▲ 1.43 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots16/1612.8 shots/match
4.56 shots/matchShots on target16/164.69 shots/match
50.8% ●Possession16/1643.9%
5.13 corners/matchCorners16/16● 5.19 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 Jan 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTSG HoffenheimVfL Wolfsburg
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headTSG Hoffenheim — VfL Wolfsburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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