PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3–1 Borussia M'gladbach · Bundesliga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 3–1.

Shots
107
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
2.070.63
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat Borussia M'gladbach 3–1. Recorded in this match (Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Borussia M'gladbach): shots 10–7, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 2.07–0.63, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Borussia M'gladbach's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Borussia M'gladbach's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.6 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8.6 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Borussia M'gladbach.

3.92 days ▲Rest daysBayer 04 Leverkusen · Borussia M'gladbach3.92 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricBayer 04 LeverkusenBorussia M'gladbachBaseline
Rest days3.92 days3.92 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.3 shots/match ▲ShotsBayer 04 Leverkusen · Borussia M'gladbach12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBayer 04 LeverkusenBorussia M'gladbachBaseline
Shots16.3 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.3 shots/match
Shots against10.1 shots/match16.1 shots/match13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots7 shotsBayer 04 Leverkusen 10 shots, Borussia M'gladbach 7 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsBayer 04 Leverkusen 5 shots, Borussia M'gladbach 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.07 xG0.63 xGBayer 04 Leverkusen 2.07 xG, Borussia M'gladbach 0.63 xG
  • Possession54%46%Bayer 04 Leverkusen 54%, Borussia M'gladbach 46%
  • Corners7 corners6 cornersBayer 04 Leverkusen 7 corners, Borussia M'gladbach 6 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls10 foulsBayer 04 Leverkusen 12 fouls, Borussia M'gladbach 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Tim Kleindienst · Borussia M'gladbach · 70′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKo Itakura · Borussia M'gladbach · 70′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedRocco Reitz · Borussia M'gladbach · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRobert Andrich · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPhilipp Sander · Borussia M'gladbach · 68′ · 0.02 xG · on targetEdmond Tapsoba · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNathan Tella · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJulian Weigl · Borussia M'gladbach · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 32′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTim Kleindienst · Borussia M'gladbach · 86′ · 0.06 xG · on targetPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 10′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 25′ · 0.07 xG · on targetAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 55′ · 0.08 xG · on targetTim Kleindienst · Borussia M'gladbach · 90′ · 0.42 xG · goalFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 32′ · 0.44 xG · goalPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 74′ · 0.53 xG · goalFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 62′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 10 shots, 5 on target, 2.15 xG. Borussia M'gladbach: 7 shots, 4 on target, 0.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Florian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 32′Florian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 62′Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 74′Tim Kleindienst · Borussia M'gladbach · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.15 xG · Borussia M'gladbach 0.59 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

3Bayer 04 Leverkusen
2Draws
0Borussia M'gladbach
Borussia M'gladbach — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga2–3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Borussia M'gladbach · Bundesliga0–0
Borussia M'gladbach — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga0–3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Borussia M'gladbach · Bundesliga2–2
Borussia M'gladbach — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Bayer 04 Leverkusen favored in 10 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia M'gladbach in 1

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Bayer 04 Leverkusen18 matchesBorussia M'gladbach18 matches
2.44 goals/match ▲Goals scored18/181.5 goals/match
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals allowed18/181.61 goals/match
1.92 xG/match ▲Expected goals18/181.51 xG/match
16.3 shots/match ▲Shots18/1812.7 shots/match
6.39 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/184.94 shots/match
60.4% ●Possession18/1850.9%
6.94 corners/match ●Corners18/184.94 corners/match
8.56 fouls/matchFouls18/1811.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBayer 04 LeverkusenBorussia M'gladbach
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headBayer 04 Leverkusen — Borussia M'gladbach
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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