Bundesliga · 2024Sat, 1 Feb 2025, 14:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

FC Bayern München

WWWWW

4–3Full-time recap

Holstein Kiel

WLWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	FC Bayern München	Holstein Kiel
Shots	29 shots/match▲	10 shots/match
Shots on target	12 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Expected goals	3.5 xG/match▲	1.88 xG/match
Possession	71%●	29%
Corners	12 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

FC Bayern München: 29 shots, 12 on target, 3.47 xG. Holstein Kiel: 10 shots, 6 on target, 1.99 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 3.47 xG · Holstein Kiel 1.99 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Holstein Kiel's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Holstein Kiel's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Holstein Kiel's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.55 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.4 goals/match	1.55 goals/match	1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.8 shots/match▲ShotsFC Bayern München · Holstein Kiel10.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	FC Bayern München	Holstein Kiel	Baseline
Shots	19.8 shots/match	10.6 shots/match	12.5 shots/match
Shots against	5.35 shots/match	17.1 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

71.2%●PossessionFC Bayern München · Holstein Kiel42%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 29.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	FC Bayern München	Holstein Kiel	Baseline
Possession	71.2%	42%	49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1FC Bayern München

0Draws

0Holstein Kiel

14 Sept 2024Holstein Kiel — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–6

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

FC Bayern München favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Holstein Kiel in 0 · 2 too close

3.1 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/201.55 goals/match

0.95 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 20/202.6 goals/match

2.47 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 20/201.12 xG/match

0.63 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 20/201.81 xG/match

19.8 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 20/2010.6 shots/match

5.35 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 20/2017.1 shots/match

8.1 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 20/204.35 shots/match

1.85 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 20/206.15 shots/match

71.2%●Possessionseason · 20/2042%

7.2 corners/match●Cornersseason · 20/203.4 corners/match

1.85 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 20/206.85 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

8.25 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2012.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

45%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/205%

100%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2080%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

FC Bayern München97.2

Holstein Kiel2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

FC Bayern München97.2

Holstein Kiel28.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

FC Bayern München97.2

Holstein Kiel2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

FC Bayern München75

Holstein Kiel36.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München2.8

Holstein Kiel80.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

FC Bayern München97.2

Holstein Kiel2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

FC Bayern München73.6

Holstein Kiel32

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

FC Bayern München20 matchesHolstein Kiel20 matches

3.1 goals/match▲Goals scored20/201.55 goals/match

0.95 goals/match▲Goals allowed20/202.6 goals/match

2.47 xG/match▲Expected goals20/201.12 xG/match

19.8 shots/match▲Shots20/2010.6 shots/match

8.1 shots/match▲Shots on target20/204.35 shots/match

71.2%●Possession20/2042%

7.2 corners/match●Corners20/203.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.25 fouls/matchFouls20/2012.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

FC Bayern München10 matchesHolstein Kiel10 matches

3.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.7 goals/match

0.9 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/102.7 goals/match

2.78 xG/match▲Expected goals10/101.22 xG/match

21.9 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.1 shots/match

8.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/104.3 shots/match

72.4%●Possession10/1041%

7.7 corners/match●Corners10/103.3 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

7.6 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.79 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples20 / 20home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Feb 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4