PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

FC Bayern München 4–3 Holstein Kiel · Bundesliga

4–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 4–3.

Shots
2910
Shots on target
126
Expected goals
3.51.88
Possession
71%29%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat Holstein Kiel 4–3. Recorded in this match (FC Bayern München – Holstein Kiel): shots 29–10, shots on target 12–6, expected goals 3.5–1.88, possession 71%–29%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Holstein Kiel's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Holstein Kiel's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.55 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.55 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC Bayern München show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

FC Bayern München's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

19.8 shots/match ▲ShotsFC Bayern München · Holstein Kiel10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenHolstein KielBaseline
Shots19.8 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against5.35 shots/match17.1 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

71.2% ●PossessionFC Bayern München · Holstein Kiel42%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 29.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC Bayern MünchenHolstein KielBaseline
Possession71.2%42%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots29 shots10 shotsFC Bayern München 29 shots, Holstein Kiel 10 shots
  • Shots on target12 shots6 shotsFC Bayern München 12 shots, Holstein Kiel 6 shots
  • Expected goals3.5 xG1.88 xGFC Bayern München 3.5 xG, Holstein Kiel 1.88 xG
  • Possession71%29%FC Bayern München 71%, Holstein Kiel 29%
  • Corners12 corners1 cornerFC Bayern München 12 corners, Holstein Kiel 1 corner
  • Fouls7 fouls10 foulsFC Bayern München 7 fouls, Holstein Kiel 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 32′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRaphaël Guerreiro · FC Bayern München · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 55′ · 0.02 xG · on targetThomas Müller · FC Bayern München · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFiete Arp · Holstein Kiel · 79′ · 0.02 xG · on targetKonrad Laimer · FC Bayern München · 43′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTimo Becker · Holstein Kiel · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 2′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 52′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 56′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAleksandar Pavlović · FC Bayern München · 33′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFinn Porath · Holstein Kiel · 62′ · 0.05 xG · goalJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKim Min-jae · FC Bayern München · 60′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München · 70′ · 0.07 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 49′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLasse Rosenboom · Holstein Kiel · 6′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 44′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAleksandar Pavlović · FC Bayern München · 50′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 84′ · 0.12 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 84′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 46′ · 0.20 xG · goalSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 56′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 12′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedArmin Gigović · Holstein Kiel · 26′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedSteven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 90′ · 0.29 xG · goalSteven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 90′ · 0.30 xG · goalHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.33 xG · goalLewis Holtby · Holstein Kiel · 26′ · 0.34 xG · on targetSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 54′ · 0.35 xG · goalFiete Arp · Holstein Kiel · 90′ · 0.37 xG · on targetJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 19′ · 0.43 xG · goalSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.68 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Bayern München: 29 shots, 12 on target, 3.47 xG. Holstein Kiel: 10 shots, 6 on target, 1.99 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Jamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 19′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 45′Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 46′Serge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 54′Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel · 62′Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 90′Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Bayern München 3.47 xG · Holstein Kiel 1.99 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1FC Bayern München
0Draws
0Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–6

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Bayern München favored in 11 of 11 directional metrics · Holstein Kiel in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Bayern München20 matchesHolstein Kiel20 matches
3.1 goals/match ▲Goals scored20/201.55 goals/match
0.95 goals/match ▲Goals allowed20/202.6 goals/match
2.47 xG/match ▲Expected goals20/201.12 xG/match
19.8 shots/match ▲Shots20/2010.6 shots/match
8.1 shots/match ▲Shots on target20/204.35 shots/match
71.2% ●Possession20/2042%
7.2 corners/match ●Corners20/203.4 corners/match
8.25 fouls/matchFouls20/2012.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Feb 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC Bayern MünchenHolstein Kiel
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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