PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

VfB Stuttgart 1–3 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 1–3.

Shots
1217
Shots on target
38
Expected goals
0.892.19
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat VfB Stuttgart 3–1. Recorded in this match (VfB Stuttgart – FC Bayern München): shots 12–17, shots on target 3–8, expected goals 0.89–2.19, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.75 goals/match1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.4 shots/match ▲ShotsVfB Stuttgart · FC Bayern München18.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVfB StuttgartFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match18.9 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against11.4 shots/match5.96 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

VfB Stuttgart have a visible home split

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots17 shotsVfB Stuttgart 12 shots, FC Bayern München 17 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots8 shotsVfB Stuttgart 3 shots, FC Bayern München 8 shots
  • Expected goals0.89 xG2.19 xGVfB Stuttgart 0.89 xG, FC Bayern München 2.19 xG
  • Possession53%47%VfB Stuttgart 53%, FC Bayern München 47%
  • Corners4 corners6 cornersVfB Stuttgart 4 corners, FC Bayern München 6 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls13 foulsVfB Stuttgart 12 fouls, FC Bayern München 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Harry Kane · FC Bayern München · 3′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 45′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 44′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAngelo Stiller · VfB Stuttgart · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 75′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAngelo Stiller · VfB Stuttgart · 34′ · 0.06 xG · goalJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 76′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 88′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 16′ · 0.07 xG · on targetNick Woltemade · VfB Stuttgart · 18′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 23′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 26′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 85′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 63′ · 0.08 xG · on targetEnzo Millot · VfB Stuttgart · 73′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJoão Palhinha · FC Bayern München · 77′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJosha Vagnoman · VfB Stuttgart · 6′ · 0.14 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 31′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 64′ · 0.30 xG · goalKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.30 xG · goalJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 22′ · 0.38 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.50 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

VfB Stuttgart: 12 shots, 3 on target, 0.86 xG. FC Bayern München: 17 shots, 8 on target, 2.14 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Angelo Stiller · VfB Stuttgart · 34′Michael Olise · FC Bayern München · 45′Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 64′Kingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: VfB Stuttgart 0.86 xG · FC Bayern München 2.14 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1VfB Stuttgart
1Draws
3FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga4–0
VfB Stuttgart — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga3–1
FC Bayern München — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga3–0
VfB Stuttgart — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–2
FC Bayern München — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: VfB Stuttgart favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

VfB Stuttgart24 matchesFC Bayern München24 matches
1.75 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲ 3 goals/match
1.54 goals/matchGoals allowed24/24▲ 0.83 goals/match
1.78 xG/matchExpected goals24/24▲ 2.49 xG/match
13.4 shots/matchShots24/24▲ 18.9 shots/match
5.25 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲ 8.08 shots/match
57.2%Possession24/24● 68.9%
5.29 corners/matchCorners24/24● 6.63 corners/match
10.4 fouls/matchFouls24/248.67 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 28 Feb 2025, 23:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVfB StuttgartFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-headVfB Stuttgart — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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