PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

1. FC Union Berlin 0–1 Holstein Kiel · Bundesliga

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Holstein Kiel won 0–1.

Shots
1410
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.231.02
Possession
51%49%

Full time

What the match recorded

Holstein Kiel beat 1. FC Union Berlin 1–0. Recorded in this match (1. FC Union Berlin – Holstein Kiel): shots 14–10, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.23–1.02, possession 51%–49%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FC Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FC Union Berlin's last-five shots average is above their season average.

16.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots16.2 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FC Union Berlin show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

1. FC Union Berlin's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.9 shots/match ▲Shots1. FC Union Berlin · Holstein Kiel10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Union BerlinHolstein KielBaseline
Shots12.9 shots/match10.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against11.8 shots/match17.2 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.3 fouls/matchFouls1. FC Union Berlin · Holstein Kiel12.2 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Union BerlinHolstein KielBaseline
Fouls13.3 fouls/match12.2 fouls/match10.9 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots10 shots1. FC Union Berlin 14 shots, Holstein Kiel 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shots1. FC Union Berlin 3 shots, Holstein Kiel 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.23 xG1.02 xG1. FC Union Berlin 1.23 xG, Holstein Kiel 1.02 xG
  • Possession51%49%1. FC Union Berlin 51%, Holstein Kiel 49%
  • Corners11 corners3 corners1. FC Union Berlin 11 corners, Holstein Kiel 3 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls12 fouls1. FC Union Berlin 16 fouls, Holstein Kiel 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Nicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel · 4′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedWoo-Yeong Jeong · 1. FC Union Berlin · 2′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 53′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDanilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 63′ · 0.02 xG · on targetShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDiogo Leite · 1. FC Union Berlin · 80′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel · 40′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedWoo-Yeong Jeong · 1. FC Union Berlin · 46′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 49′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLasse Rosenboom · Holstein Kiel · 5′ · 0.08 xG · on targetTom Alexander Rothe · 1. FC Union Berlin · 46′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLeopold Querfeld · 1. FC Union Berlin · 14′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedTom Alexander Rothe · 1. FC Union Berlin · 35′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMagnus Knudsen · Holstein Kiel · 58′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedFrederik Rønnow · 1. FC Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedTom Alexander Rothe · 1. FC Union Berlin · 10′ · 0.15 xG · on targetAndrej Ilić · 1. FC Union Berlin · 49′ · 0.16 xG · on targetArmin Gigović · Holstein Kiel · 42′ · 0.20 xG · goalMarko Ivezić · Holstein Kiel · 72′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedMax Geschwill · Holstein Kiel · 17′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blockedDanilho Doekhi · 1. FC Union Berlin · 45′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Union Berlin: 14 shots, 3 on target, 1.26 xG. Holstein Kiel: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.03 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Armin Gigović · Holstein Kiel · 42′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Union Berlin 1.26 xG · Holstein Kiel 1.03 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

11. FC Union Berlin
0Draws
0Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga0–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Union Berlin favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · Holstein Kiel in 3 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Union Berlin24 matchesHolstein Kiel24 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲ 1.46 goals/match
1.54 goals/match ▲Goals allowed24/242.46 goals/match
1.14 xG/matchExpected goals23/241.13 xG/match
12.9 shots/match ▲Shots23/2410.3 shots/match
3.65 shots/matchShots on target23/24▲ 4.17 shots/match
42.3%Possession23/24● 42.7%
4.91 corners/match ●Corners23/243.54 corners/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls23/2412.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Mar 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Union BerlinHolstein Kiel
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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