PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

Holstein Kiel 2–2 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Holstein Kiel and VfB Stuttgart drew 2–2.

Shots
176
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
1.40.75
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Holstein Kiel and VfB Stuttgart drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Holstein Kiel – VfB Stuttgart): shots 17–6, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 1.4–0.75, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

VfB Stuttgart's recent record differs from the season

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's last-five shots average is below their season average.

9.2 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots9.2 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

VfB Stuttgart have a visible away split

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

10.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

VfB Stuttgart show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

VfB Stuttgart's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHolstein Kiel · VfB Stuttgart13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricHolstein KielVfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against16.8 shots/match11.6 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots6 shotsHolstein Kiel 17 shots, VfB Stuttgart 6 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsHolstein Kiel 5 shots, VfB Stuttgart 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.4 xG0.75 xGHolstein Kiel 1.4 xG, VfB Stuttgart 0.75 xG
  • Possession52%48%Holstein Kiel 52%, VfB Stuttgart 48%
  • Corners3 corners1 cornerHolstein Kiel 3 corners, VfB Stuttgart 1 corner
  • Fouls8 fouls9 foulsHolstein Kiel 8 fouls, VfB Stuttgart 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Armin Gigović · Holstein Kiel · 3′ · 0.00 xG · off target or blockedArmin Gigović · Holstein Kiel · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSteven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 46′ · 0.01 xG · goalFiete Arp · Holstein Kiel · 67′ · 0.01 xG · on targetNicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel · 80′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFiete Arp · Holstein Kiel · 74′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Bernhardsson · Holstein Kiel · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAtakan Karazor · VfB Stuttgart · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 39′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTimo Becker · Holstein Kiel · 5′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 15′ · 0.05 xG · goalArmin Gigović · Holstein Kiel · 54′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 88′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 59′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 75′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedDavid Zec · Holstein Kiel · 5′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 54′ · 0.10 xG · on targetDeniz Undav · VfB Stuttgart · 29′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMagnus Knudsen · Holstein Kiel · 27′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedSteven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 30′ · 0.19 xG · goalErmedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 55′ · 0.45 xG · goalFiete Arp · Holstein Kiel · 73′ · 0.58 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Holstein Kiel: 17 shots, 5 on target, 1.41 xG. VfB Stuttgart: 6 shots, 2 on target, 0.76 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 30′Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 46′Jamie Leweling · VfB Stuttgart · 15′Ermedin Demirović · VfB Stuttgart · 55′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Holstein Kiel 1.41 xG · VfB Stuttgart 0.76 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Holstein Kiel
0Draws
1VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart — Holstein Kiel · Bundesliga2–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Holstein Kiel favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Holstein Kiel25 matchesVfB Stuttgart25 matches
1.48 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 1.76 goals/match
2.44 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 1.56 goals/match
1.14 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲ 1.74 xG/match
10.5 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 13.1 shots/match
4.2 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 5.12 shots/match
43.1%Possession25/25● 56.8%
3.52 corners/matchCorners25/25● 5.12 corners/match
12 fouls/matchFouls25/2510.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Mar 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsHolstein KielVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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