PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

1. FC Union Berlin 1–1 FC Bayern München · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Union Berlin and FC Bayern München drew 1–1.

Shots
718
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
0.721.5
Possession
20%80%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Union Berlin and FC Bayern München drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Union Berlin – FC Bayern München): shots 7–18, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 0.72–1.5, possession 20%–80%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.88 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match2.88 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

41%Possession1. FC Union Berlin · FC Bayern München● 69.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 28.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Union BerlinFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Possession41%69.5%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

1. FC Union Berlin show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

1. FC Union Berlin's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.6 shots/match ▲Shots1. FC Union Berlin · FC Bayern München18.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Union BerlinFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots12.6 shots/match18.7 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against12.1 shots/match6.08 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots18 shots1. FC Union Berlin 7 shots, FC Bayern München 18 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shots1. FC Union Berlin 3 shots, FC Bayern München 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.72 xG1.5 xG1. FC Union Berlin 0.72 xG, FC Bayern München 1.5 xG
  • Possession20%80%1. FC Union Berlin 20%, FC Bayern München 80%
  • Corners2 corners14 corners1. FC Union Berlin 2 corners, FC Bayern München 14 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls8 fouls1. FC Union Berlin 13 fouls, FC Bayern München 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Leon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 47′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBenedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin · 76′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTim Skarke · 1. FC Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetDayot Upamecano · FC Bayern München · 9′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRani Khedira · 1. FC Union Berlin · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 59′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 70′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 50′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJosip Juranović · 1. FC Union Berlin · 61′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 37′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 66′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMichael Olise · FC Bayern München · 26′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJosip Juranović · 1. FC Union Berlin · 59′ · 0.12 xG · on targetLeopold Querfeld · 1. FC Union Berlin · 81′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedSerge Gnabry · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.24 xG · on targetBenedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin · 83′ · 0.31 xG · goalLeroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 75′ · 0.42 xG · goalJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 63′ · 0.43 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Union Berlin: 7 shots, 3 on target, 0.71 xG. FC Bayern München: 18 shots, 4 on target, 1.67 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Benedict Hollerbach · 1. FC Union Berlin · 83′Leroy Sané · FC Bayern München · 75′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Union Berlin 0.71 xG · FC Bayern München 1.67 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FC Union Berlin
1Draws
4FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga3–0
1. FC Union Berlin — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–5
FC Bayern München — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga1–0
FC Bayern München — 1. FC Union Berlin · Bundesliga3–0
1. FC Union Berlin — FC Bayern München · Bundesliga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Union Berlin favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Union Berlin26 matchesFC Bayern München26 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 2.88 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 0.92 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals25/26▲ 2.45 xG/match
12.6 shots/matchShots25/26▲ 18.7 shots/match
3.6 shots/matchShots on target25/26▲ 7.81 shots/match
41%Possession25/26● 69.5%
4.8 corners/matchCorners25/26● 7 corners/match
13 fouls/matchFouls25/268.58 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Mar 2025, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Union BerlinFC Bayern München
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-head1. FC Union Berlin — FC Bayern München
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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