PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

1. FC Heidenheim 3–1 Holstein Kiel · Bundesliga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FC Heidenheim won 3–1.

Shots
1416
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
1.511.52
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FC Heidenheim beat Holstein Kiel 3–1. Recorded in this match (1. FC Heidenheim – Holstein Kiel): shots 14–16, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 1.51–1.52, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Holstein Kiel's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Holstein Kiel's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.46 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.46 goals/match1.56 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots16 shots1. FC Heidenheim 14 shots, Holstein Kiel 16 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shots1. FC Heidenheim 5 shots, Holstein Kiel 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.51 xG1.52 xG1. FC Heidenheim 1.51 xG, Holstein Kiel 1.52 xG
  • Possession38%62%1. FC Heidenheim 38%, Holstein Kiel 62%
  • Corners3 corners5 corners1. FC Heidenheim 3 corners, Holstein Kiel 5 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls13 fouls1. FC Heidenheim 15 fouls, Holstein Kiel 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 66′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTimo Becker · Holstein Kiel · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 33′ · 0.02 xG · goalArmin Gigović · Holstein Kiel · 40′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPatrick Mainka · 1. FC Heidenheim · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlexander Bernhardsson · Holstein Kiel · 70′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFinn Porath · Holstein Kiel · 87′ · 0.02 xG · on targetFiete Arp · Holstein Kiel · 88′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTimo Becker · Holstein Kiel · 6′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFiete Arp · Holstein Kiel · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdrian Beck · 1. FC Heidenheim · 19′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAdrian Beck · 1. FC Heidenheim · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdrian Beck · 1. FC Heidenheim · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJan Schöppner · 1. FC Heidenheim · 19′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSteven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel · 20′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 27′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBudu Zivzivadze · 1. FC Heidenheim · 47′ · 0.08 xG · goalFiete Arp · Holstein Kiel · 58′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 73′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLeo Scienza · 1. FC Heidenheim · 81′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel · 82′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMarnon Busch · 1. FC Heidenheim · 32′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 46′ · 0.14 xG · on targetMarvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 75′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedShuto Machino · Holstein Kiel · 10′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedSirlord Conteh · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′ · 0.62 xG · goalPhil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 87′ · 0.69 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Heidenheim: 14 shots, 5 on target, 1.48 xG. Holstein Kiel: 16 shots, 4 on target, 1.56 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Marvin Pieringer · 1. FC Heidenheim · 33′Budu Zivzivadze · 1. FC Heidenheim · 47′Sirlord Conteh · 1. FC Heidenheim · 90′Phil Harres · Holstein Kiel · 87′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.48 xG · Holstein Kiel 1.56 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

21. FC Heidenheim
1Draws
2Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel — 1. FC Heidenheim · Bundesliga1–0
1. FC Heidenheim — Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga3–0
Holstein Kiel — 1. FC Heidenheim · 2. Bundesliga3–1
Holstein Kiel — 1. FC Heidenheim · 2. Bundesliga1–1
1. FC Heidenheim — Holstein Kiel · 2. Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Heidenheim favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Holstein Kiel in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Heidenheim26 matchesHolstein Kiel26 matches
1.19 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 1.46 goals/match
2 goals/match ▲Goals allowed26/262.46 goals/match
1.24 xG/match ▲Expected goals26/261.16 xG/match
12.1 shots/match ▲Shots26/2610.7 shots/match
4.04 shots/matchShots on target26/264.19 shots/match
42.9%Possession26/26● 43.8%
4 corners/match ●Corners26/263.58 corners/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls26/2612.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Mar 2025, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC HeidenheimHolstein Kiel
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
Head-to-head1. FC Heidenheim — Holstein Kiel
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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