PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024

FC St. Pauli 1–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC St. Pauli and Bayer 04 Leverkusen drew 1–1.

Shots
106
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
1.090.77
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC St. Pauli and Bayer 04 Leverkusen drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (FC St. Pauli – Bayer 04 Leverkusen): shots 10–6, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 1.09–0.77, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC St. Pauli's recent record differs from the season

moderate

FC St. Pauli's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.87 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match0.87 goals/match1.6 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FC St. Pauli show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

FC St. Pauli's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.5 shots/match ▲ShotsFC St. Pauli · Bayer 04 Leverkusen15.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliBayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match15.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against10.8 shots/match9.57 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have recorded the higher season possession share.

44.3%PossessionFC St. Pauli · Bayer 04 Leverkusen● 59.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricFC St. PauliBayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Possession44.3%59.6%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots6 shotsFC St. Pauli 10 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 6 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsFC St. Pauli 5 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.09 xG0.77 xGFC St. Pauli 1.09 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.77 xG
  • Possession42%58%FC St. Pauli 42%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 58%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersFC St. Pauli 4 corners, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls12 foulsFC St. Pauli 12 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Danel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 63′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 81′ · 0.02 xG · on targetCarlo Boukhalfa · FC St. Pauli · 15′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 61′ · 0.03 xG · on targetCarlo Boukhalfa · FC St. Pauli · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDanel Sinani · FC St. Pauli · 78′ · 0.04 xG · on targetExequiel Palacios · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 50′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPiero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 81′ · 0.06 xG · on targetCarlo Boukhalfa · FC St. Pauli · 11′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEric Smith · FC St. Pauli · 63′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 89′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 14′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Guilavogui · FC St. Pauli · 41′ · 0.15 xG · on targetManolis Saliakas · FC St. Pauli · 6′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedCarlo Boukhalfa · FC St. Pauli · 78′ · 0.40 xG · goalPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 32′ · 0.42 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC St. Pauli: 10 shots, 5 on target, 1.16 xG. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 6 shots, 4 on target, 0.75 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Carlo Boukhalfa · FC St. Pauli · 78′Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 32′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC St. Pauli 1.16 xG · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.75 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0FC St. Pauli
0Draws
1Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga2–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC St. Pauli favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 8 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC St. Pauli30 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen30 matches
0.87 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲ 2.13 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed30/301.17 goals/match
1.07 xG/matchExpected goals30/30▲ 1.78 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShots30/30▲ 15.3 shots/match
3.43 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲ 5.67 shots/match
44.3%Possession30/30● 59.6%
4.43 corners/matchCorners30/30● 6.57 corners/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls30/309.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Apr 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC St. PauliBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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